Asian stock markets are falling after Trump confirmed a baseline global tariff rate of 10% and announced harsh reciprocal tariffs of up to 41% on countries without trade agreements.

At the current BTC price of $118K and an average acquisition price by large players in the range of $45K–$59K, their average ROI ranges from 100% to 162%, meaning the price is now 2–2.6 times higher than their average entry levels. This is approximately $20B in profit.
I believe that during a deeper correction, these investors will start repurchasing coins from the market, as those who have secured such sizeable gains won’t hesitate to re-enter.

Over the past year, large holders have locked in a significant portion of profits. The supply of whales with balances over 1K BTC decreased by 502K BTC, while institutional demand allowed the market to hold and continue growing.
Essentially, for a whole year we have been seeing strong demand for coins from new players.

The 7-day moving average of takers' net position (Long–Short) has dropped to –3.7%. This means that on average over the week, the volume of short sales exceeded the volume of longs by 3.7% of the total taker volume flow on CEX exchanges.
The current level indicates a risk of short-term correction.

According to the consensus forecast of analysts at Bloomberg, the regulator will leave the key rate in the current range of 4.25–4.5%.

After the distribution of 80k BTC through Galaxy Digital and the spike in the average Net Realized Profit/Loss to $3.2B, current values of the metric have dropped to $1.4B. The market is steadily absorbing the coins that are entering the market and the price is practically not reacting, but this distribution may take more time since current Net Realized Profit/Loss values are still high.
On top of everything else, bears will strive to push the price down to the $110K level through futures where they currently have a slight advantage.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase provides a single scalar value that reflects the current temperature of the Bitcoin market:
High values (closer to 50%) mean that most components (overvaluation assessment, profit-taking activity, LTH selling pressure, and ETF inflows) are at upper historical levels - the market may be overheated, close to a distribution phase or correction.
Low values (closer to 30%) indicate coolness: low profit-taking, modest ETF inflows, and minimal selling wave from LTH - a favorable phase for accumulation.
Essentially, the metric serves as a generalized beacon, showing how close

At the $118K level LTH supply began to decline, having decreased by 52K BTC at the moment. Essentially, LTH started distributing accumulated supply, and as the price rises, this will intensify as it did in previous macro cycles.
The shift in balance from accumulation to distribution exactly repeats the LTH pattern from fall 2024 when the price rose from $65K to $100K.

US stock futures are rising following Trump's announcement of a new trade agreement with the European Union, including a 15% tariff on European goods, half of what was initially threatened at 30%. Markets are also preparing for a busy week of corporate earnings, a key Federal Reserve decision, and high-impact economic data.
More than 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings, including tech giants Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple.
While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday, investors will focus on any signals regarding the timing of the

Average BTC purchase price: 0–1d = $119,193 (+0.2%), 1d–1w = $117,762 (+1.4%), 1w–1m = $115,252 (+3.6%).
In fact, as of the current hour the average holder bought below $119,4K.

Quarterly (3-month) realized volatility has dropped to 70%. This is close to historical minimums, but slightly above the local bottom of 62% that occurred on September 23, 2023 at a price of $26K. With the arrival of big money Bitcoin has become slow. The maximum realized volatility of this cycle is 143%, whereas in previous cycles it reached 236%.
Looking at history, low realized volatility served as a breather before the next phase of the trend.

The trade agreement between the US and EU became a key factor in Bitcoin's growth and consolidation above the $119K mark.
Investor optimism increased after the parties announced a new framework deal: the US agreed to impose a 15% tariff on a range of European goods instead of the previously threatened 30%, while the EU promised to invest $600 billion in US energy and defense sectors over three years, as well as increase purchases of American energy resources by $750 billion.

💡Insight #54 is live:
Bitcoin consolidates: momentum cooling, institutional and corporate demand steady at +227K BTC, key support level $115K and window for testing $122–$125K
🙌 Get the full breakdown in my latest report.

The week is coming to an end and in this bull cycle, only 12 weeks have shown the same or greater selling pressure from the bears, which accounts for about 7.3% of the entire cycle.
Therefore this week is among the 7% most extreme in terms of selling volume, yet the price has already recovered to $117K, which in itself can be considered a positive signal.

The ECB has kept its key interest rate steady at 2.00%, in line with market expectations. Inflation is at the 2% medium‑term target, price pressures are easing, and wage growth has slowed. In the press conference, President Christine Lagarde described the stance as wait‑and‑watch and said the ECB will monitor risk developments over the coming months.

The net realized profit/loss chart clearly shows strong spikes of profit-taking by investors during price growth phases. There's a high probability we'll see one or two more waves of profit-taking before the price enters a deeper correction.
Each such wave will be accompanied by short-term correction and consolidation, but as long as the net realized profit peaks don't exceed previous extremes or are comparable in volume, the bullish trend remains intact.
Ideally, these healthy pullbacks will allow the market to cool down from excessive overheating and continue moving upward.

The chart shows that over the last quarter, the maximum price 'drops' on the 5-minute timeframe reached -10% in early June and -12% in mid-month, while the average weekly drawdown (green line) holds at 3.8%. The current pullback of -6% is within normal volatility range, being only 2.2% deeper than average and far from extremes.
Despite the unpleasant visual effect, the current drawdown fits within a standard consolidation cycle.

Asian equity markets are declining as investors assessed the implications of the newly signed U.S. - Japan trade agreement and awaited progress in other major negotiations.
U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in Stockholm next week, with China facing an August 12 deadline to reach a deal or risk higher U.S. tariffs.