Market Watch: Geopolitical Risk Eases and Monetary Policy Signals Drive Recovery in Risk Assets

The macro environment is showing a positive shift. The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, with crude oil prices retreating to pre-conflict levels and gold briefly falling below the 3300 USD mark. Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled key insights during his congressional hearing: while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He admitted that if inflationary pressures are controlled, there would be "earlier rather than later" rate cuts, but the current strong economy does not require hasty actions, while also pointing out that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying rate cuts. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, coupled with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a broad surge in US stocks—Nasdaq 100 reached a new all-time high, and the Dow surged 500 points in a single day, with US Treasury yields declining alongside the dollar. Notably, Powell reiterated the independence of monetary policy in response to Trump’s pressure for rate cuts, stressing that decisions are based solely on economic data, while observations from industry giants regarding the energy sector indicate that US shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may undermine the traditional mechanisms for adjusting energy price volatility.

In terms of regulation, analysts have indicated that a well-known cryptocurrency exchange is seeking approval from the U.S. SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, lower thresholds, reduced costs, and round-the-clock trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms, challenging the position of traditional internet brokers. Furthermore, since the new management took office at the SEC, there has been a shift in the regulatory stance towards the crypto industry, with not only the dismissal of lawsuits against several crypto companies but also the establishment of a crypto working group to formulate regulations for digital assets. Analysts believe that the U.S. may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading while providing investors with more diversified and flexible trading options.

Bitcoin broke through $106,000 under favorable macro conditions, but its performance has been relatively restrained. The founder of a research institution stated that the 13% increase in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflow, reflecting the market's caution regarding structural changes. According to analysts, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the current Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration surpasses 15%, the market may experience significant fluctuations. From a technical analysis perspective, several technical analysts have given similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend, with some analysts indicating that the price may consolidate at the current level, and if it breaks through $107,000, it could aim for $110,000; otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000. Other analysts believe that Bitcoin may briefly rise to $107,000 before quickly retreating to test the liquidity in the range of $104,000 to $105,000.

Regarding Ethereum, analysts have indicated that a certain trading platform experienced a massive withdrawal of funds on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This suggests that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Further analysis from another research institution pointed out that as the funding rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant rise, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, indicating potential for catch-up gains. Some analysts also noted that ETH is rapidly approaching $2,500, with buying interest significantly increasing and a doji candlestick reversal signal appearing. However, there are also analysts presenting opposing views, arguing that the ETH price has failed to break through $3,000 for over 20 consecutive weeks, which has damaged market confidence, and it faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return above $3,000 in the short term. Finally, one analyst provided specific Fibonacci target levels, suggesting that the upward targets for ETH are at $2,475 and $2,565, while support levels are around $2,331 and $2,155.

In the market, the interaction between an official of a public chain and KOL has sparked a wave of Meme coin frenzy. One token quickly reached a market value of 12 million USD before falling back to 5.3 million; another token developed by a team under an AI foundation rapidly reached a market value of 18 million USD with the concept of "cross Web2 and Web3 smart agents," claiming that former members of OpenAI participated in its development, with a mechanism that attracts follower funds by distributing 20% of tokens to holders. There is also a token that peaked at a market value of 3.4 million USD and is currently valued at 1.45 million USD. It is reported that its name comes from a video meme from October 2024.

In addition, traditional finance is accelerating its actions in the crypto space. US company Nano Labs announced the acquisition of a certain cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, aiming to hold 5%-10% of the circulating supply of that coin, which drove its stock price to soar by 150% in a single day. A breakthrough in the Hong Kong market is that Guotai Junan International has obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage to offer trading services for mainstream coins. The news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price, which saw an intraday increase of over 100%, and also boosted related company Huamao Co., Ltd., which once rose by over 8%.

Key Data (as of June 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily spot trading volume $27.86 billion

• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), daily spot trading volume is $15.253 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%

• Trading platform 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, SEI, NEWT, BTC, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751

• Sector performance: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $187 million, including $34.3663 million in BTC liquidations, $68.176 million in ETH liquidations, and $6.9476 million in SEI liquidations.

• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (105782.52 USD), Lower Channel Line (103687.82 USD)

• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (2485.15 USD), Lower Channel Line (2435.94 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flow (as of June 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)

• Ethereum ETF: +71.2379 million USD

Today's Outlook

• A certain trading platform: H contracts and Alpha trading are scheduled to open on June 25 at 17:30 and 17:00 respectively.

• The Kroma L2 network will shut down on June 26, $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum.

• A certain trading platform will launch Sahara AI on June 26, (SAHARA).

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the semiannual monetary policy report. (June 25, 22:00)

• Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens on June 25 at 4 PM, which is 2.84% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 10 million USD.

• AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens on June 25 at 6 PM, which accounts for 6.83% of the current circulation, valued at around 6.7 million dollars.

• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 15.16 million coins on June 25 at 8:00 AM, which is 0.39% of the current circulating supply, worth about 2.3 million US dollars.

• Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 182 million tokens at 8:00 AM on June 26, which is 2.47% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $2.1 million.

• Blast (BLAST) will unlock approximately 10.5 billion tokens on June 26 at 10 PM, which is 34.98% of the current circulation, valued at about 22.5 million dollars.

• Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 2.15 million tokens at 8:00 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.13% of the current circulation, worth approximately $2.3 million.

Top 500 Market Cap Gains Today: NEM (XEM) up 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) up 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) up 18.45%, Apu Apustaja (APU) up 15.91%.

Hot News

• "Three battles ETH 100% win rate giant whale" has once again increased its short position in ETH, with the current position valued at 122 million dollars.

• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 12,207 ETH with an investment of $30.67 million, raising its total holdings to 188,478 coins.

• Nano Labs announced a $500 million convertible note private placement for BNB strategic reserves, and Nano Labs' stock price has surged over 150%.

• A trading platform will launch the 25th phase of the HODLer airdrop project: Sahara AI (SAHARA)

• ProCap invested $387 million to acquire 3,724 bitcoins.

• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate 10 million dollars for the purchase of Bitcoin.

• Trump calls out to Powell again: interest rates should be lowered by at least 2 to 3 percentage points.

• A trading platform will launch the Newton (NEWT) trading pairs with KRW, BTC, and USDT.

• Grayscale Space and Time (SXT) Trust registered in Delaware

• Celestia co-founder: Has over $100 million in funds, enough to support operations for more than 6 years.

• A suspected ConsenSys-related address has purchased 3,704 ETH again, worth 8.91 million dollars.