Ethena Labs Founder: Native capital in encryption may have been exhausted, making it impossible to boost the market capitalization of alts; Tokens backed by TradFi will differentiate completely from ordinary alts in the future.

According to BlockBeats news, on July 25, Guy Young, the founder of Ethena Labs, posted on social media: "One of my major concerns is that crypto-native capital may have been exhausted, unable to push altcoins beyond the peak of the previous cycle. Observing the total nominal market capitalization peaks of altcoins in Q4 2021 and Q4 2024, both are capped at around $1.2 trillion (the inflation-adjusted values are almost identical). This may be the upper limit of global retail investor valuations on 99% of air projects? However, for tokens that have real businesses, produce physical products, and generate income for real users, there exists a huge blue ocean in widening channels to institutional investors in the stock market. Compared to the global stock market capitalization, the entire altcoin market is merely a drop in the ocean. The current NAV premium arbitrage is clearly just a flash in the pan; Saylor can become the only exception, ultimately due to the unique leverage advantage in his capital structure (quasi-non-redeemable + quasi). But why does Ethena still support the ENA treasury strategy of StablecoinX? The core goal is to build an entry channel for stock market funds—these capitals have a significant excess demand for super-growth companies in the stablecoin and digital dollar space. This is unrelated to short-term NAV arbitrage; the key is to open the floodgates of untapped capital pools. It is well known that Ethena faces the dilemma of VC unlocking pressure; I have made countless mistakes in fundraising and am still reflecting on them. There is a serious capital mismatch in the crypto world: private sale VC capital far exceeds the liquid capital needed to support token valuations, which mirrors the opposite situation in the Web2 world (where private capital only accounts for a fraction of the stock market). Of course, this does not apply to all junk coins. Air projects with zero revenue remain air even if wrapped in equity shells. But I firmly believe that for the few tokens that can gain the endorsement of traditional finance and align with long-term growth trends, this will be a significant favorable information. Excluding mainstream tokens, there are no more than 10 such tokens globally, and they will ultimately differentiate themselves completely from the coins that TradFi has never paid attention to."