Encryption Market May Report: Policy Factors Intensify Impact, Buying Power Gathers to Find Breakthrough Point In May, BTC opened at $60,621.20 and closed at $67,472.41, a monthly increase of $6,850.31 or 11.3%, with a volatility of 25.54%. It failed to recover as strongly as the Nasdaq's decline in April, and BTC's performance in May was relatively weak. After a large-scale volatility, the trading volume did not increase significantly, leaving long upper and lower shadows in the trend. The biggest achievement was the effective recovery after falling out of the top box at the beginning of the month, returning to the range of $58,500 to $69,500 for volatility. Although the on-chain fundamentals continue to deteriorate, the price has effectively rebounded. In addition, the support from macro finance, industry, and funds has temporarily shelved concerns about the end of the bull market. In this cycle, the upward momentum of BTC has gone through three stages: replenishing inventory, speculation on the approval of BTC ETF, and the influx of funds after the operation of BTC ETF. As of the end of May, except for the ETF channel, the inflow of on-chain funds has significantly slowed down. EMC Labs believes that in May, the rebound in BTC prices was mainly driven by the linkage effect brought about by the strong rise of ETH. There are signs of on-exchange industrial capital flowing from BTC to ETH, as evidenced by the amplified volume of the ETH/BTC trading pair after May 15. The reverse flow of industrial capital indicates that the future price discovery of BTC will mainly depend on the inflow of funds from BTC ETF channels and whether on-exchange funds are being sold. During the bull market, long-term holders will gradually sell their BTC holdings in batches, while short-term traders who aim to outperform the market in the short term continue to increase their positions. Since December, the "long-to-short" trend has been continuing until a reversal occurred in May. This month, the overall long position group shifted from selling to accumulating, increasing by 93,400 BTC, while the short position group started to reduce position and sold 38,200 BTC. In the first month after the halving, the mining community saw a decline in block rewards and transaction revenue, with a significant reduction in income to $963 million (according to The Block). EMC Labs found that under the pressure of sharp income decline, miners were forced to take two actions this month. One is to sell the accumulated 6,000 BTC in inventory to the market, and the other is to reduce computing power supply. With the price decline, the Bitcoin network has lost up to 28% of its computing power since reaching its peak on April 23. Currently, the miner community holds 1.8 million BTC and has not conducted large-scale selling since the bull market began. If the market starts to decline, the miner community may sell to maintain mining farm operations, potentially pushing the market further into a weak downward trend. Since this cycle, stablecoins have achieved a net inflow since October 2023, driving the market upwards. The inflow scale in March and April this year set a new high, marking the highest level in this cycle. It has become an important force to absorb the liquidity shock caused by the realization of large-scale BTC profits (another force is fiat funds through the BTC ETF channel). By May, with massive chip exchanges and violent market fluctuations, coupled with the delay in interest rate cuts, the inflow of funds into the stablecoin channel has dropped significantly. According to EMC Labs, the inflow of stablecoin funds in May was only $341 million, far below the $8.9 billion and $7 billion in March and April. Compared to the two major stablecoins, USDT saw an inflow of 1.394 billion this month, while USDC recorded its first outflow of 973 million in 5 months, indicating a more sensitive trend in the fund flow of stablecoins in the US region compared to the Asian region. In the April report, we judged that the market has entered a Bull Market Relay state, and the first wave of large-scale chip exchange (March~April) has already occurred. In the whole month of May, both long and short lot trading fell sharply, the market supply resumed "from short to long", and the stock of BTC on the exchanges returned to the outflow state, marking that the BTC market has entered a weak equilibrium state after the catharsis of passion. We maintain our judgment that there is a trend of capital migration from BTC to ETH in the market, and the "Ethereum time" will continue. The future trend of BTC depends on US macroeconomic data and the Fed's market voice. BTC, which is in a weak balance state, does not actually require a lot of funds to push upwards. Possible buying power comes from the spillover effect of the approval of ETH ETF, as well as fiat funds from the BTC ETF channel. With the continuous growth of its scale and the rhythm synchronized with the Nasdaq, the fiat funds in the BTC ETF channel may become an independent force that affects the price of BTC. (Data Source: EMCLabs)

PANews reported on April 7 that crypto fund management company EMC Labs released a March report, saying that investors began a large-scale sell-off on February 26 - From February 26th to March 12th, the first half of the sell-off was dominated by buying momentum, with the price rising from $51,730.96 to $71,475.93, and in the second half of the sell-off from March 13 to March 31 (not yet over), BTC was in a period of selling momentum, with the price falling from 73,709.99 to $60,771.74. From Feb. 26 to Mar. 31, sellers cumulatively locked in nearly $63.1 billion in profits. By the end of March, the size of the sell-off had fallen sharply, but it was still as high as $1 billion, which caused the price rally to fail and fall again in April. EMC Labs believes that the selling power is waning sharply, and the first wave of the bull market is nearing its end. This wave of large-scale selling before the production cut cleared a lot of profit chips, raised the cost focus of BTC, and helped the price to rise in the next stage. Throughout March, stablecoin channels saw a total of $8.9 billion in inflows, setting a record for monthly inflows since the beginning of the cycle. This inflow was the basic support for the BTC price to hit a record in March, and it was also one of the undertakers of the big selling in March.

Crypto fund manager EMC Labs released its March report. According to on-chain data analysis, investors began to carry out large-scale sell-off on February 26 - February 26 to March 12 was the first half of the sell-off, BTC was in the period of buying momentum, the price rose from $51,730.96 to $71,475.93, and in the second half of the sell-off from March 13 to March 31 (not yet over), BTC was in the period of selling momentum, and the price fell from $73,709.99 to $60,771.74. From Feb. 26 to March 31, sellers cumulatively locked in nearly $63.1 billion in profits. At the end of March, the sell-off had fallen sharply, but was still as high as $1 billion, which made the price rally fail and the downside resumed in April. EMC Labs believes that the selling power is waning sharply, and the first wave of the bull market is nearing its end. This wave of large-scale selling before the production cut cleared a lot of profit chips, raised the cost center of gravity of BTC, and helped the price to rise in the next stage. Throughout March, the stablecoin channel saw a total of $8.9 billion in inflows, setting a record for monthly inflows since the beginning of the cycle. This inflow was the fundamental support for the BTC price to hit a record in March and was one of the bearers of the big selling in March. In addition, analyzing the BTC ETF data, it can be seen that the BTC ETF did not have a large-scale outflow in this round of large-selling adjustment, and only recorded a small outflow on March 18~March 22. The stablecoin channel and BTC ETF channel continue to flow in, which is one of the important supports for the subsequent BTC price recovery and new highs.

Crypto fund management company EMC Labs posted on the X platform that in the cyclical trend, every time BTC enters a bull market and hits a new high, long hands (long-term investors) who hold most of the issued BTC begin to take profits. Profits accounting for more than 70% of BTC's total market capitalization is a key point. Around this time, the selling of a large number of chips often overdraws the purchasing power in the short term, which in turn forms a stage adjustment in the market. This cycle is similar to 2017. In 2014, the proportion of profit reached 71% on March 6, and the adjustment began to end on March 24, which lasted 18 days, with a range of -27.32%. The adjustment lasted 7 days from March 13, when the profit accounted for 72%, to 20, with a range of -27.70%. In terms of space, it is basically in place, and in terms of time, it is not sufficient. According to the monitoring of the EMC Labs engine, the peak of chip selling has passed, and the current inflow scale of the exchange (to be sold) has been greatly reduced, and the static outflow has resumed. Based on the above, the bull market is still going on and a good buying point has emerged.

PANews reported on March 19 that according to the statistics of EMC Labs, a crypto asset management company, the average purchase cost of bitcoin for spot ETF investors in the United States is about 55,600 US dollars, and the average profit to the highest point is 34%, which is still low, and there is a high probability that it will not usher in an overall reversal. On March 18, the U.S. spot BTC ETF recorded its first net outflow of $154 million in the past two weeks. At the same time, last Thursday and Friday's net inflows also showed a significant slowdown trend, which caused some investors to worry. However, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs last week was still $1.867 billion, close to the previous week's net inflow of $1.979 billion.

Odaily Planet Daily News Crypto fund management company EMC Labs posted on the X platform that according to on-chain data analysis, as of February 21, the ETH profit ratio reached 94.8%, the highest point since the peak of the last Bull Market, exceeding the current 92% profit ratio of BTC. In the last 14 days, ETH has started to outperform BTC. At the same time, the ETH stock of centralized exchanges is accelerating, and there are currently only 13.2 million ETH, accounting for about 11% of the total circulation. Exchange stock is already less than the peak of the previous two Bull Market rounds and is approaching the July 2015 lows. In terms of supply fundamentals, ETH is in better shape than ever. After the ETH Fud noise, the crypto asset market is entering "Ethereum time".

Odaily Planet Daily News Crypto fund management company EMC Labs issued a long article on the X platform saying that the crypto asset market has entered the "bull market" warm-up stage. The price of BTC began to be dominated by the funds entering the ETF channel, and the industrial capital on the floor began to shift to ETH, and the strength of ETH90 has exceeded that of BTC. EMC Labs has monitored a continuous outflow of ETH out of centralized exchanges and into staking, Layer 2, and lending platforms over the past year. Since 2024, fundamentals such as Ethereum users and value capture have continued to improve. Eventually, the "flywheel effect" of ETH (staking, using, burning) will drive the ETH/BTC trading pair to reverse. Following the ICO frenzy of 2018 and the application of truth in 2021, the ETH/BTC trading pair is entering a new rising cycle.

PANews News on February 5, EMC Labs pointed out in its January 2024 report "Solving the Problem, Starting the Bull Market" that Stable Coin inflows reached $4.9 billion in January, becoming the highest net inflow month since last year, and the overall Stable Coin supply increased by 4%. In particular, USDT and USDC recorded net inflows of $4.5 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, with USDC setting a monthly inflow record since 2023. This reflects the shared optimism of investors in different parts of the world about the market outlook. Although the approval of the BTC ETF triggered more than $4 billion worth of selling pressure, hindering the push of funds to the BTC price, the funds in the Stable Coin channel did not retreat, providing material support to the market.

Recently, crypto fund management company EMC Labs released its January 2024 report "Solving the Problem and Starting the Bull Market". According to the report, EMC Labs uses pre-production data from the first three production cuts to conclude that the Rebound High of BTC during the recovery period before the start of the Bull Market is 3 times the bottom price. Compared with the past, after the rebound price hit 3 times, there will be a round of currency price correction before the production cut. The reason for this phenomenon may be that people speculate before the production cut, and sell to lock in profits before the production cut occurs. Compared with the previous two times, the magnitude and timing of the current pullback are lacking. It is worth being vigilant whether there will be a large retracement of the massacre before the BTCHalving.

Odaily Planet Daily News Crypto fund management company EMC Labs posted on the X platform that on January 10, speculative funds that had previously entered the market after the approval of the BTC ETF began to sell off, selling about 67,977 BTC, selling up to $3 billion. Yesterday became the biggest sell-off day for BTC in a year, causing the price of BTC to shake violently, with an amplitude of up to 7.4%. According to the monitoring of EMC Labs data engine, the scale of BTC entering the exchange every day is 2~30,000, which was nearly 3 times larger yesterday. In terms of stable coins, since January, inflows of up to $2.7 billion have created new purchasing power on exchanges to form a hedge against the withdrawal of speculative funds. EMC Labs believes that in the current situation, the peak of speculative selling pressure of "selling facts" may have passed, the BTC price rose 1.18% and stabilized at $46,000, and there was no significant retracement, and the supply of stable coins is sufficient, and the aftermarket coupled with the inflow of funds from ETFs, BTC is expected to fluctuate upward, pushing crypto assets into the fifth round of Bull Market.

Odaily Planet Daily News Recently, crypto fund management company EMC Labs released a December report "BTC price may be shaking sharply in January, waiting for the fifth round of Bull Market". The report pointed out that the annual outflow of stable coins in 2023 was as high as $9 billion, but the trend began to shift in the fourth quarter. USDT inflowed $1.4 billion in October, resulting in a net inflow of $800 million for Stable Coin that month, which directly prompted BTC to get out of the box and return to the rising channel during the recovery period. After that, under the continuous inflow in November and December, BTC finally broke through the upper edge of the rising channel during the repair period, showing a trend of breaking the trend of the repair period. Among them, Stable Coin inflows of $800 million in October, 3.5 billion in November, and 1.3 billion in December, EMC Labs believes that Stable Coin inflows have recorded positive inflows for 3 consecutive months, indicating that Stable Coins have entered a bull market. The establishment of a net Stable Coin inflow trend will drive the fifth round of crypto asset Bull Market in 2024.

Web3 Headlines Today 1. Hong Kong Shengli Securities and EMC Labs jointly launched the first compliant BTC fund 2. Kanro, a Vitalik-related charity, transferred 50 million USDC to a wallet 1 day ago 3. BTC surpassed Berkshire Hathaway and TSL to regain its position among the top 10 assets in the world by market capitalization 4. CEO of Franklin Templeton: Holding a small amount of cryptocurrency, regulators will approve BTC spot ETF in due course

PANews reported on December 4 that Victory Securities, a Hong Kong-listed company, and EMC Labs, a virtual asset investment and research institution, announced that the two sides jointly launched the Victory EMC BTC Cycle Fund, a compliance BTC fund, which has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to enter the market. The fund is open to qualified professional investors and has an active cyclical allocation to BTC based on data mining and industry research. It is currently the only virtual asset fund in Hong Kong that has been approved by the SFC to accept stablecoin subscriptions.

Golden Finance reported that Hong Kong Victory Securities (stock code: 8540.HK) HK) and EMC Labs announced that the Victory EMC BTC Cycle Fund, a compliance BTC fund jointly launched by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, has been approved for market launch. The fund is open to qualified professional investors and has an active cyclical allocation to BTC based on data mining and industry research. It is currently the only virtual asset fund in Hong Kong that has been approved by the SFC to accept stablecoin subscriptions. Chen Peiquan, executive director of Shengli Securities, said that the fund will be able to accept deposits in US dollars, USDC or USDT, providing investors with a convenient way to participate in the compliant licensed virtual asset market.

On December 1, it was reported that the crypto fund company EMC Labs pointed out in the just-released November briefing that BTC is likely to usher in a sharp rise in the next 12 months, possibly reaching $48,000, an increase of 26% from the closing price in November. According to the analysis of on-chain data, liquidity is rapidly lost, more than 83% of BTC have entered a profitable state, and all parties holding coins have continuously increased the floating profit threshold, and the upward pressure has been very small. Historically, at the end of the repair period, when the bull market begins, the BTC rebound is 3 times the bottom price, 3 times the price of $16,000, or $48,000.

Crypto fund EMC Labs pointed out in its November briefing that EMC Labs Emergence Engine data showed that the net inflow of stablecoins in November expanded to $3.5 billion, 3.5 times the size of the net inflow in October, after the net inflow of stablecoins in the whole market turned positive in October. At present, all parties in the market presuppose that the current interest rate hike cycle has ended, and funds have begun to preferentially flow into equity assets with higher risk appetite such as BTC. In the monthly report, EMC Labs judged that if the stablecoin continued to flow in December, then the stablecoin will be confirmed to enter a bull market. With BTC, which has long been out of the bear market, in the most optimistic scenario, the crypto market will enter the early stages of the 5th crypto asset bull market as soon as January 24.

On November 8, according to official news, Hong Kong-listed company Shengli Securities signed a memorandum of understanding with EMC Labs, a virtual asset investment and research institution, and the two sides are highly complementary in compliance, control, investment research and data mining, and plan to provide investors with Bitcoin fund products based on the overall goals and requirements of the compliance system in the future. Victory Securities is the first corporation in Hong Kong to be licensed by the SFC for both virtual asset trading, advisory and asset management services. In addition, Shengli Securities is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to manage up to 100% virtual asset investment funds, and the Hong Kong Federation is licensed to manage investments in virtual asset funds. EMC Labs is a technology and financial company driven by data mining and industry research, and the company has invested a lot of resources in data mining and metric compilation on the BTC network chain since its inception.

PANews reported on November 8 that, according to official news, Hong Kong-listed company Victory Securities (8540. HK) and EMC Labs, a virtual asset investment and research firm, announced that they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to leverage the strengths of both companies, including compliance, data mining, and cycle judgment capabilities, to provide investors with Bitcoin fund products based on the overall goals and requirements of the compliance system in the future. It is reported that Victory Securities is the first licensed corporation in Hong Kong to be licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission for virtual asset trading, advisory and asset management services at the same time. In addition, Shengli Securities is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to manage up to 100% virtual asset investment funds, and the Hong Kong Federation is licensed to manage investments in virtual asset funds. EMC Labs is a technology and financial company driven by data mining and industry research, and the company has invested a lot of resources in data mining and metric compilation on the BTC network chain since its inception.

Crypto fund EMC Labs pointed out in its October briefing that USDT inflows were $1.759 billion last month, USDC outflows were $887 million, and stablecoins totaled $993 million. On October 15, the stablecoin turned from outflow to inflow, and the next day BTC started to soar mode, and USDT, mainly used by Asia, Europe, and the Americas, was the direct cause of this round of rise. In the first 10 months, stablecoins continued to outflow $13.8 billion, and October was the first month to record a net inflow, which could be an inflection point, if so, it would mean the end of the stablecoin bear market. In the monthly report in 2023, EMC Labs judged that the data on the bit network chain continues to improve, BTC has broken through the box suppression, and the market is expected to fluctuate upward along the channel.