Pundit Predicts XRP Price When the First Wave of XRP ETFs Kicks In

With XRP currently valued at around $3.10, Nguyen’s forecast would represent a substantial price increase of 607% to over 1,500% from current levels. At those price points, XRP’s market capitalization would range from roughly $1.3 trillion to $3 trillion, significantly higher than its present $186 billion valuation.

Potential Impact of Spot XRP ETFs on Market Valuation

The optimism behind Nguyen’s projection stems from the belief that spot ETFs can serve as a gateway for both institutional and retail investors seeking regulated exposure to XRP without the complexities of direct custody. The introduction of spot XRP ETFs would mirror developments seen in other major digital assets and could mark one of the most pivotal moments in XRP’s market history.

Unlike assets such as Ethereum, which provide staking rewards that may discourage ETF adoption, XRP does not have a staking feature. This absence of an opportunity cost could make ETF investment in XRP more appealing for certain investors.

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Market Scenarios Based on Projected Inflows

Analyst Dom’s multiplier model, which applies a 272x factor to market cap growth from inflows, places XRP’s valuation at $1.546 trillion in this scenario. This is equivalent to about $26 per token, within Nguyen’s projected range.

Other projections draw parallels with Bitcoin’s ETF debut. If XRP ETFs capture 35% of the inflows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded since launch, which is approximately $16.3 billion, and a conservative multiplier of 100 is applied, XRP’s market capitalization could reach around $1.76 trillion, corresponding to a price of roughly $30.

Smaller inflow estimates still yield notable gains, with $11.7 billion potentially lifting XRP to $22.20 and $5.85 billion supporting a price of about $12.23.

Comparisons to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Performance

Some analysts view Bitcoin’s market reaction to ETF approval as a possible benchmark. Bitcoin experienced a temporary dip on launch day but later climbed to record highs above $100,000 within the year as ETF holdings expanded rapidly.

In contrast, Ethereum’s spot ETFs have not yet pushed the asset to new highs, with momentum only building recently due to increased treasury activity. Observers note that XRP’s trajectory may differ entirely, depending on investor sentiment and capital allocation once ETFs launch.

Rising Probability of U.S. Approval

Confidence in the eventual approval of spot XRP ETFs continues to increase. Bloomberg ETF analysts recently estimated a 95% chance of approval, while prediction platform Polymarket reflects probabilities between 80% and 88% for 2025.

Multiple major investment firms, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree, are currently awaiting a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which faces a deadline in October to rule on the pending applications.

If approval is granted, Nguyen’s forecast of a $20 to $50 XRP price range will be tested in real market conditions, with investor inflows likely determining whether the asset approaches the upper end of that spectrum.