Altcoin Season: Is It Too Early to Celebrate?

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Many cryptocurrency traders are looking forward to a new "altcoin season," where alternative coins like Ethereum, Solana, or DeFi tokens could surge. However, the latest market data and technical signals suggest that it may still be too early to expect that. Bitcoin Dominance Remains High – A Bad Signal for Altcoin On the 3-day frame, Bitcoin Dominance ( the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin to the entire crypto market ) is still holding strong on the important support range of 60.5% – 61%. This is important because when Bitcoin's dominance is high or continues to rise, capital flow often prefers to stay in BTC rather than flow into altcoins. Conversely, for altcoins to truly explode, dominance needs to drop sharply and stabilize below this support area. Although there has been a slight decline recently that helped altcoins bounce back a bit, this is not yet a confirmed signal for a real altcoin season. If dominance increases again from the current range, the selling pressure on altcoins will become even heavier. Ethereum ETF Records Worst Redemption Day in History Another worrying factor comes from the activity of Ethereum ETF funds on Wall Street. Just on this past Monday, more than 465 million USD was withdrawn from spot ETH ETF funds – the largest figure since these products were launched. Notably, BlackRock's Ethereum ETF alone has seen $375 million withdrawn. This is a record level of capital outflow in a single day, clearly reflecting the apprehensive and lack of confidence sentiment regarding ETH's short-term outlook among institutional investors. Ethereum Hits Strong Resistance and Shows Signs of a Downtrend Technically, Ethereum (ETH) is still struggling as it continues to be rejected at the strong resistance zone of $3,900 – $4,100. Each time the price approaches this zone, selling pressure increases, causing ETH to reverse and decline.

Additionally, a bearish divergence has appeared on the daily chart of ETH – a signal that often indicates a potential price correction. The last time this pattern appeared, ETH experienced a sharp decline in the following weeks. If the scenario repeats, it is highly likely that ETH will face selling pressure in the near future. Conclusion Although many traders are hoping for a new altcoin season, the current market data does not support this. Bitcoin dominance remains high → The capital flow is not ready to move from BTC to altcoin. Ethereum ETF records a historic capital withdrawal → Short-term confidence weakens. ETH faces strong resistance + bearish signals → The risk of adjustment remains high.

Investors need to be patient and closely monitor market signals. A true altcoin season only begins when Bitcoin dominance decreases sustainably and confidence returns to altcoins, especially Ethereum.

ETH1.58%
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