Bitcoin targets key resistance at $116,000, XRP "death cross" triggers pullback alert

The cryptocurrency market shows a clear bullish-bearish divergence this week. Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded strongly and is approaching the important resistance level of 116,000 dollars; Ethereum (ETH) continues to improve on fundamentals, with volume reaching new highs, and the technical aspects are brewing a major breakthrough; meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) is indicating a potential further dip in the short-term due to a death cross appearing in the technical indicators. This article will combine the latest market news and technical analysis to help you grasp the potential opportunities and risks of mainstream tokens.

Macroeconomic Dynamics: Federal Reserve's Tough Turn, Capital Outflow Intensifies

The Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States recently displayed a hawkish stance, leading to a shift in institutional investor sentiment, with crypto investment products experiencing a net outflow of $223 million in a single week, ending a 15-week influx of capital. Powell revised the probability of a rate cut in September from 63% to 40%, dampening some risk appetite. However, the U.S. CFTC and SEC are actively collaborating to promote regulatory reforms for digital assets, bringing hope for future market standardization.

Bitcoin (BTC): Challenging $116,000, market structure is robust

BTC/USD quickly rebounded after the weekend liquidation event and is currently approaching the key resistance area of 116,000 dollars. The CME gap has been filled, with 112,000~113,800 dollars becoming an important low support. Selling pressure is concentrated around 115,800 dollars, and if bulls can break through this area, it is expected to trigger a new round of upward movement.

Technical Highlights: The number of futures open contracts has dropped to a new low since July, the leverage bubble has been squeezed out, and the capital flow of spot ETFs has become the key to the market outlook.

Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the price to break through $115,850 for confirmation, with a target above $118,000; if it is blocked and falls back, then pay attention to the defense situation at $112,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Strong Fundamentals, Can We Expect $9,000?

The daily trading volume of ETH/USD has broken a one-year high, with active addresses and new addresses increasing simultaneously. EIP-1559 continues to tighten supply, creating a virtuous cycle of increased demand and limited supply. On the technical side, a descending expanding wedge pattern has emerged, and experts predict a 67% chance for ETH to break upward, with a target price reaching as high as $9,000.

Capital Momentum: Institutional strategic reserves surged from $200 million in April to $10 billion, indicating that long-term funds are actively positioning.

Technical Observation: If ETH can stabilize above the previous high resistance and break through with volume, it may welcome a new wave of main upward trend.

Ripple (XRP): Death Cross Emerges, Short-Term Under Pressure

XRP/USD technical indicators are showing warning signs, with the MVRV ratio falling below the 200-day moving average for the second time this year, forming a "death cross." This phenomenon often indicates a deterioration in market sentiment and a greater risk of decline. Although the MVRV is still above 1.0, its recent performance has been noticeably weaker than BTC and ETH.

Historical experience: Death crosses often occur before increased volatility and price declines, and it is necessary to wait for buying intervention to protect key support levels for a rebound to be expected.

Operation suggestion: Approach the short-term with caution and observe, waiting for key support to stabilize or for the technical indicators to reverse before positioning.

Conclusion

The current crypto assets market shows mixed signals. If Bitcoin can break through the 116,000 USD resistance level, it is expected to drive a recovery in the overall market. The fundamentals of Ethereum continue to strengthen, making its long-term potential worth anticipating. However, XRP should be cautious of technical correction risks. It is recommended that investors closely monitor market dynamics and technical indicators, flexibly adjust their operational strategies, and seize the turning points for mainstream tokens.