Pi coin price prediction: Unclosed contracts show bullish divergence, is a $0.5 rebound in sight?

The price of Pi Network Token (PI) has entered a deep fall trend, hitting a historical low of $0.40003 on July 31. As of August 1, the price of Pi coin is reported at $0.405, with a 24-hour decline of 3.45%. Despite extremely bearish signals on the technical front (Fibonacci retracement suggests a potential drop to $0.1), the surge in open contracts and the sharp decrease in exchange balances release contradictory signals — the derivatives market shows bullish divergence, with over 6 million Pi coins flowing out of exchanges in the past 24 hours. In the Bull vs Bear Battle, the key support at $0.32 and the rebound target at $0.50 have become the focus for the market ahead.

1. Historical Ice Point: Demand Exhaustion Leads to PI Coin Downward Break, Trading Volume Shrinks by 13% The continuous decline of Pi coin reached its peak on July 31, with the price breaking through the previous low and setting a historical low of 0.40003 USD. The current price hovers around 0.405 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of only 79 million USD, down 13% from the previous day, reflecting a severe lack of buying power in the market. CoinGape previously analyzed that if the price loses the support at 0.419 USD, it may further drop to 0.32 USD. The Fibonacci extension tool warns that if the selling pressure continues, 0.32 USD may not be the bottom, with 0.10 USD becoming a potential target for bears.

2. Technical Contradiction: Oversold RSI and Moving Average Support Indicate Rebound Opportunity

PI / USDT 4-hour chart (Source: TradingView)

Despite the severe trend, technical indicators still show reversal clues:

• Oversold Signal Emerges: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold zone, suggesting short-term selling pressure may be near exhaustion, and the selling power may weaken.
• Historical Support of Moving Averages: The 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) has provided support multiple times at historical lows in the past. If it can stabilize at the current low level, the rebound target can look towards the psychological level of $0.50.

3. Key Signal: Open interest surged by $30 million, currently showing bullish divergence Derivation market data releases strong bullish and bearish divergence signals:

• Bullish Divergence Formed: According to Coinanalyze data, although the price of Pi coin continues to hit new lows, the entire market's Open Interest has surged against the trend, breaking the 30 million dollar mark. This combination of "price fall + volume increase" constitutes a classic bullish divergence pattern, usually indicating that some traders are positioning for long positions at lower prices.
• Bull vs Bear Intention Unclear: Caution is needed as the increase in open contracts may also be due to short positions being added. If this is the case, the downward price space may further open up.

4. On-Chain Dawn: 6 Million Pi Tokens Urgently Withdrawn from Exchange, Are Holders Reluctant to Sell? On-chain data provides additional support evidence for bulls:

• Exchange Balance Sharp Decline: In the past 24 hours, over 6 million Pi coins have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges (CEX) to private wallets. Large-scale withdrawal behavior is typically interpreted as holders being unwilling to sell at the current low levels (i.e., "holding coins for a rise"), which helps alleviate market selling pressure.
• Supply Contraction Effect: A decrease in the exchange circulation may improve the short-term supply and demand structure, creating conditions for a price rebound.

Conclusion: The Pi Token is at a historic low point during the Bull vs Bear Battle. The bearish logic is clear: weak demand, technical breakdown, and the risk of further falls has not dissipated (warning at $0.1). However, the bulls also hold three major cards: the oversold technical indicators indicate a demand for recovery, bullish divergence in the derivation market suggests a flow of funds, and on-chain data shows an increase in holders' reluctance to sell. In the short term, $0.32 will become the next target for the bears, but if the divergence of open positions resonates with the exchange's withdrawal effect, a rebound challenging $0.50 is not out of reach. Investors need to closely monitor changes in the direction of open positions and the outcome of the Bull vs Bear struggle in the $0.32-$0.40 range, as the volatility of this asset may significantly amplify.