Ala Chat Market (August 21, 2025)

BTC bounced back to around 115850 the day before yesterday but encountered resistance and fell back, temporarily staying around 112600. This pullback is considered an acceleration of the decline, driven by the combined effects of the 12-hour MACD double lines returning to zero and the daily MACD fast line also returning to zero, leading to increased bearish volume.

Currently rebounding above 114000, the bearish volume has obviously decreased, and the probability of continuing to rebound is relatively high. We are just waiting to see how the bulls will exert their strength after the meeting on Friday. At this psychological level of 110000, there are a few points to pay attention to:

A: 112000 US Dollars is both the contact point of the upward trend line and an important position for stop-loss swaps.
B: The panic selling that began on August 14 may trigger a natural technical rebound, and we are currently in this phase.
C: Retail investors and some bullish institutions will try to stabilize the market here.

Currently, there is a potential "double bottom" formation on the hourly chart, but it has not fully formed yet. The next two days will be the defense battle at the 110,000 level. Although the weekly chart is currently bearish, the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands at 112,000-110,600 usually has a bounce. Since there will be news on Friday, if it falls to this area, it could easily create a rebound, which might be violent. It is recommended to be bearish at the 114,000 position without opening a short position and to prepare for a low-level ambush, waiting for a low-level counterattack to above 120,000, where the risk-reward ratio is quite favorable.

ETH follows BTC's trend, and has been experiencing a continuous decline in volume over the past few days, reaching a critical moment in the market. Yesterday, I mentioned in the fan group that ETH could be cautiously bought at the bottom within the 4172-4080 range, and I placed an order to buy at 4100, which has already yielded profits this morning. However, based on the current situation, I personally feel that it hasn't reached the bottom yet and there should still be opportunities to buy at the bottom.

Many people are concerned whether ETH will drop below 4000?

I think the probability is quite high. Although most analysts are optimistic about the subsequent market trend, I also agree that ETH can break through the historical threshold of 5000 during a bull market. However, from the analysis of the 4-hour candlestick chart, I conclude that around 4225 dollars is a key structural point. If this position is broken, it means the bullish trend is damaged, forming a multiple top on the 4-hour level. Below, 3924 dollars is both a previous high and an important support point. Meanwhile, 4000 dollars, as a round number, has psychological support and technical significance, so a short-term rebound may occur before continuing to decline in search of a support level.

Because from the overall structure, it is difficult for ALA to directly hold at $4,060 and launch a big rebound in one go, the probability of directly hitting $4,500 is relatively low. The short-term trend is still mainly bearish, while the medium to long-term trend is bullish. Therefore, the strategy we recommend is:

A: If you are worried about missing out on short-term trading, you can start with a light position near 4070, add to your position near 3980, set a stop loss at 3900, and take profit at 4400.
B: You can place a light short position at the 4450-4500 level, with a take profit at 3900-3850 and a stop loss at 4600.

No one can accurately hit the bottom. We have always pursued the stability of contracts, not striving to be a perpetual winner, but rather focusing on trends we are confident in. For high-level fluctuations, the risk itself is already several times higher than at low levels, so we can only say that we should layout within this range. If you want to capture that 1000-point profit later, your stop-loss must withstand the test; otherwise, you are just in a pure gambler's mentality.