As soon as the market experiences a big pump, some people predict how much it will rise in the future, leading to a bull run.

As long as the market has been falling for several days, there are always predictions about how far it will drop next, and that the bull run is coming to an end.
In the past couple of days, the leading cryptocurrencies have experienced a pullback, and some are starting to say that this round is a trap for bulls, predicting a big drop ahead. When there is a rise, people are bullish; when there is a drop, they are bearish. Is there still a need for professional analysis? Can't we just buy and sell based on the market movements? The answer is clearly no; otherwise, anyone could make money.
A bull run is a relay race, not a 100-meter sprint. Each rising cycle in the crypto market has its own intrinsic operating logic. Grasping this logic is often more critical than closely monitoring the market, as it can indicate which segment the funds are currently flowing into and where you should start laying out your strategy. To survive in the crypto space for the long term, one must rely on thinking about the underlying logic to judge future trends, rather than making predictions based on short-term market movements.
For most friends who are new to the circle, the anxiety about holding positions will actually always exist, especially now that they have just seen hope and their accounts show unrealized gains. Many people fail to achieve great results due to psychological issues that arise during this high-level oscillation, leading to erratic actions. Either they listen to others who say they want to make a small swing, or they hear someone say they want to open a short position, or they are told to chase certain worthless coins. They always listen to what others say, with no independent thinking or operational plan of their own.
Some time ago, ETH rose from 1400 to 4700, and people in the community started predicting that ETH would reach 8k, 10k, or even 20k. In fact, most of those who are optimistic about ETH now were complaining about it a few months ago, praising SOL and considering this second-tier asset trash, believing it would definitely fall below 1k. As seasoned investors, we have gone through too many scenarios like this. Indeed, everyone has the right to express their opinions, but some shouts in public are profit-driven. If you follow along and invest real money without thinking, subscription fees might earn you a little, trading fee rebates could earn you a bit, and liquidated losses could also earn you some. Have you heard of left hand and right hand both holding positions?
If not, you will understand after trying a few times.
A long time ago, we discussed the reasons why the market is dragging its feet. First, the interest rate cut cycle for 2025 has not yet begun. Second, the trading volume of contracts has already surpassed that of spot trading, and the market's trading methods are completely different from before. The current time node is the most torturous; seasoned investors know that when the price reaches this position, it is the turning point where the bulls and bears call each other fools. This critical market condition allows those who firmly believe in a bull run to see hope, while also giving the brave ones who short the market the courage to roll up their sleeves and work hard. If there were no glimmer of hope, how could anyone place a bet?
Regarding the analysis of market trends, we have actually discussed a lot before. Currently, the weekly line is in a bull run, and the overall direction has not yet peaked. The daily line is experiencing a short-term adjustment, and it should continue to oscillate and adjust in the coming days. I will wait for the stop-loss reversal signal based on the psychological support levels at whole numbers in the market. For BTC, I'm looking at 11W, and for ETH, I'm looking at 4K. If these values appear, even if they break below, I will initiate a small position for short-term trading.
As for the long-term positions, the necessary adjustments have been made, and the dry powder for short positions is ready. Most of the cryptocurrencies held have yielded quite normal returns, and as for how the final profits will turn out, we can only leave it to time to verify.
Unknowingly, we have reached mid-August. BTC and ETH have slowly climbed up from the low point in early April during the Qingming Festival. After four months, according to past cycles, after the bull tail market starts, it usually takes 5-6 months to hit the top. This means that if we rely on the trajectory of the previous cycle to make predictions at this moment, the final top may appear in the next two months.
Although some well-known analysts believe that combined with the current economic environment and institutional positions, this bull run cycle will extend to the first half of 2026, and BTC and ETH may even experience a "long and exhausting" bull run, this statement has a certain probability. However, many retail investors actually do not hold these two leading coins. Even seasoned investors, when ETH experienced a significant pullback in the first half of the year, were left behind by a large portion. Therefore, regarding this expectation, I suggest that you prepare a data model based on your position. First, set a target selling price for the expected goal, and under the premise of ensuring profits, gradually sell according to a phased DCA strategy. Even if the peak price you expect in your mind does not materialize, leaving some positions to hold these two coins long-term may not be a bad thing. Perhaps during Trump's term, it will give you a big surprise?
What everyone is really afraid of is that there won't be an obvious altcoin season next, or that the altcoins in hand will be short-lived, or that they will be stuck in a rut. I have always believed that there will still be an altcoin season. Previously, I had several discussions on this topic, and I have intermittently chatted with some friends in the comments section. Everyone believes that the probability of an altcoin bull run occurring is still quite high. But if you haven't positioned yourself with mainstream altcoins now, then the upcoming time will likely have little to do with you.
Why do I still believe there will be a bull run in the altcoin season? I've organized my thoughts and will analyze from the following four directions why the altcoin market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still worth looking forward to.
First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, the consensus is still clear: every bull run is driven by BTC attracting funds, which then flow to ETH, and finally spread to smaller altcoins. This is not a manipulation, but a natural phenomenon driven by market consensus and human greed. This cyclical pattern of fund flow will not change due to individual will. As long as there is a consensus about the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets, and as long as investors still experience greed and fear, the altcoin season will inevitably come.
You might say that it’s a bull run led by institutions now, and institutions look down on those altcoins. After experiencing the market in 2024-2025, I increasingly understand that the world is just a makeshift stage, and institutions vary in size. Institutions are also greedy. Are the funds under Trump considered institutions? Is MeituPix considered an institution? Even our disguised GJ team, are they institutions? The games played by institutions create market volatility, and the games played by institutions also increase the circulation of market chips. As long as there is heat and liquidity, capital tends to seek profit.
Capital always chases maximum returns. A large amount of institutional funds has clearly accelerated the layout in the crypto market, especially since May when there has been unprecedented inflow of funds into ETH ecosystem-related projects, which directly boosted market confidence and demand. When the valuations of BTC and ETH reach high levels, large-scale capital investment will drive up coin prices, but the return on investment continues to decline. At this time, capital will inevitably turn to smaller market cap altcoins that are easier to achieve huge short-term gains. This balance of returns and risks is the core logic driving the continuous flow of funds. Of course, it has been pointed out several times a long time ago that institutional funds are likely to flow only into mainstream altcoins with higher market capitalization, foundational applications, high market holdings, good narratives, and certain years of existence, especially those with attributes of the United States and that fit the ETF list.
Secondly, technology is the key factor driving the continuous flow of funds, as market capital always chases the latest hotspots. Each bull run brings new technology-driven and conceptual narratives, and new starting points attract the attention of retail investors, providing ample space for the speculation of altcoin markets. Despite the wave of inscriptions and MEME frenzy that emerged in 2024 sacrificing many retail investors, as we enter 2025, we can clearly feel the gradual rise of hotspots in various fields such as high-performance supply chain expansion solutions (L1 public chains), the combination of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of real assets (RWA). These fields will provide new market expectations, making it easier to attract incremental funds from outside, searching for the next potential asset for a hundredfold growth.
Thirdly, reviewing the market trend from the end of 2023 to now, from the perspective of chip distribution, many quality mainstream altcoins have completed the gathering of chips, especially new public chains or high-market-cap functional coins. Large funds, through a year and a half of pumping and dumping, should have completed the layout of low-position chips, which gives me a relatively clear and definite judgment on future trends.
Referencing XRP, TRX, SUI, BNB from 2024, and observing ETH, ADA, LINK, UNI, LTC, AAVE, DOGE, PEPE and other mainstream cryptocurrencies in 2025, if you can firmly hold at this moment, as long as you don’t have too high expectations and patiently wait for market sentiment changes and opportunity resonance, there is a high probability of easily capturing a 1-2x doubling market trend. However, it should be noted that now is not the best time to enter the market. Friends who have long been following my updates will be more aware of the reasons behind this.
Of course, you can also choose to strategically position yourself in some leading projects in the ETH layer 2 ecosystem or other sectors, including ondo, op, ena, arb, pol, fil, ton, etc. However, these types of coins, which rely on market hype and capital rotation, carry much higher risks compared to the earlier high market cap established projects.
As for why XRP, SOL, BNB, and TRX are not recommended, it is because they have already had a pump in 2024, and the upside potential is limited, making the cost-performance ratio not very high.
Fourthly, from a macroeconomic perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is close to 95%, and the tariffs from the trade war have also been postponed. There is a clear trend of global monetary easing emerging, and major central banks are continuously releasing liquidity. As I write this, I have also seen news of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine discussing a ceasefire. Aside from Japan's interest rate hike, I can't think of any other potential black swan events in the future. Therefore, in the coming months, the overall funding environment in the market should be relatively loose, which will undoubtedly enhance the risk appetite of institutional funds.
When ETH hits the 5000 mark and starts to rise significantly (like BTC breaking 73,000 and charging towards 100,000), and when several altcoins on the market experience single-day increases of 100%-300%, retail investors will inevitably experience FOMO. Mainstream altcoins with a high level of consensus are likely to become the asset class that benefits the most in such an environment.
The signs of this situation have actually already appeared, and the rise of OKB can be taken as a starting signal. Even if the current market experiences a relatively extreme retracement of 20%-30%, I firmly believe that the overall direction will not change. The bull run is not over; it just needs to be extended. The high peaks of BTC and ETH are likely to appear again, and a local altcoin bull run will inevitably come.
Of course, opportunities and risks coexist, and everyone has different personalities and holding situations. Therefore, I would still recommend that you carefully consider rational decisions. Only by thoroughly thinking through your operation plan and carefully simulating your operation strategy can you possibly seize your bull run profits in the end.
Remember, the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish ☕ I enjoy walking with friends with high cognition. If you have different opinions, feel free to chat in the comments. #机构以太坊储备破1000万枚#