Stablecoins will迎来重要发展机遇

On April 25, 2025, a well-known investment bank research institution released a research report on the digital dollar. The report pointed out:

The year 2025 is likely to become a key turning point for the application of blockchain technology in the financial and public sectors, a trend primarily driven by regulatory changes.

By 2030, the total circulating supply of stablecoins is expected to reach $1.6 trillion in the baseline scenario; in an optimistic scenario, it could increase to $3.7 trillion, and in a pessimistic scenario, it would be about $500 billion.

The supply of stablecoins will still be primarily denominated in US dollars, accounting for about 90%, while non-US regions may further promote the development of their own central bank digital currencies.

The regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States may drive new demand for U.S. Treasuries, and by 2030, stablecoin issuers are expected to become one of the major holders of U.S. Treasuries.

Stablecoins pose a certain challenge to the traditional banking system by replacing part of the deposits. However, they may also bring new service opportunities for banks and financial institutions.

The research report dedicates a chapter to explain "The important development opportunities for stablecoins are about to arrive." Below are the main points of that chapter:

The Operating Mechanism of Stablecoins

A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to a reference asset. These reference assets can include fiat currencies like the US dollar, commodities like gold, or a basket of financial instruments. Key components of a stablecoin system include:

Stablecoin issuers: responsible for issuing stablecoins and maintaining their price stability by holding equivalent underlying assets.

Blockchain ledger: records stablecoin transactions, providing transparency and security.

Reserves and Collateral: Ensure that each token can be redeemed at its pegged value. For fiat-collateralized stablecoins, reserves typically include liquid assets such as cash and short-term government bonds.

Digital wallet providers: provide digital wallets for storing, sending, and receiving stablecoins.

Overview of Major Stablecoins

As of April 2025, the total circulating supply of stablecoins has exceeded $230 billion, a 54% increase compared to the same period last year. The top two stablecoins dominate this ecosystem, holding over 90% market share in terms of value and trading volume, with USDT in the lead and USDC following.

In recent years, the trading volume of stablecoins has grown rapidly. In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly trading volume of stablecoins is expected to be between $650 billion and $700 billion, approximately twice the level observed from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2024. Supporting the crypto ecosystem is the main application scenario for stablecoins.

Factors Driving the Adoption of Stablecoins in the U.S. and Globally

Practical advantages: fast speed, low cost, available around the clock. This creates demand especially in regions where instant payments are not widespread, small and medium-sized enterprises are underserved, multinational companies need more convenient global fund transfers, and where cross-border transaction costs are high and banking technology is lagging in emerging markets.

Macroeconomic Demand: Hedge against inflation, improve financial inclusion. In countries with high currency volatility such as Argentina, Turkey, and Nigeria, consumers protect their funds through stablecoins. An increasing number of remittances are made in the form of stablecoins, allowing users without bank accounts to use digital dollars.

Support from existing banks and payment institutions: This is crucial for the legalization and widespread adoption of stablecoins. Mature payment networks can bring transparency and facilitate integration with existing solutions from businesses. The clearing mechanisms between different stablecoins, as well as between banks and non-bank institutions, are also important. Technological improvements are eliminating the barriers that once limited the application of stablecoins.

Regulatory clarity: enabling banks and the broader financial services industry to adopt stablecoins in retail and wholesale operations. Audit requirements and liquidity management regulations will also simplify operational integration.

Potential Market Size of Stablecoins

Research institutions estimate that by 2030, the baseline scenario for the stablecoin market size will be $1.6 trillion, the optimistic scenario will be $3.7 trillion, and the pessimistic scenario will be $0.5 trillion.

This prediction is based on the following factors:

• Some overseas and domestic U.S. dollars are shifting from cash to stablecoin.
• Households and businesses in the U.S. and internationally are reallocating some short-term dollar liquidity into stablecoins.
• The growth of the public cryptocurrency market

It is expected that by 2030, the scale of non-US dollar stablecoins will be 21 billion USD, 103 billion USD, and 298 billion USD under pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios, respectively.

Stablecoin Market Outlook

In an optimistic scenario, the stablecoin market could expand 5-10 times, reaching 1.5-2.0 trillion USD by 2030, permeating global trade payments, personal remittances, and mainstream banking services. This requires the following key conditions:

• Major regions introduce favorable regulations
• Widespread trust in stablecoin reserves among consumers and businesses
• Reasonable distribution of income on the value chain
• Widely adopted technology that connects new and old infrastructure

In a pessimistic scenario, stablecoins are limited to the crypto ecosystem and specific cross-border use cases, with a market capitalization potentially stagnating between 300 to 500 billion dollars. Factors that could lead to this situation include:

• Major stablecoins experience reserve failures or decoupling
• There are friction and high costs in daily use.
• Central bank digital currency lacks appeal
• Some regions tighten regulation
• The scale of fully reserved stablecoins limits credit.

Main Applications of Stablecoins

Ranked by contribution to the total market cap of stablecoins from largest to smallest:

1. Cryptocurrency trading: Currently the largest application scenario, accounting for 90-95% of stablecoin trading volume. In the mature stage, it may still account for around 50%.

2. Business-to-business payments: especially when conducting business with low and middle-income countries. In the long term, it may account for around 20-25%.

3. Consumer remittances: may account for 10-20% in cases of high adoption.

4. Institutional Trading and Capital Markets: Used for professional investors or tokenized securities trading settlement, possibly accounting for around 10-15%.

5. Interbank liquidity and fund management: the proportion may be less than 10%, but the potential impact is significant.

The Relationship Between Stablecoins, Bank Cards, and Central Bank Digital Currencies

The stablecoin market may evolve continuously like the bank card market. The current dual monopoly structure of issuance may persist in the offshore market, but new participants may enter the onshore markets of various countries.

Many countries may continue to develop their own central bank digital currencies, using them as tools for national strategic autonomy, especially in the wholesale and corporate payment sectors.

Impact of Stablecoins on Banks

Stablecoins provide banks with new business opportunities, including:

• Directly act as a stablecoin issuer
• Incorporate stablecoin into payment solutions
• Build structured products around stablecoins
• Provide liquidity support

However, stablecoins may also have a similar impact as "narrow banks"; the transfer of deposits to stablecoins may affect banks' lending capacity. There are differing opinions on this; some believe it could suppress economic growth, while others think it could reduce systemic risk.

Overall, stablecoins are at a crucial development opportunity period, with broad prospects for future development, but also facing many challenges. Banks need to actively respond to this trend and seize new business opportunities.