Bitcoin fluctuates at a high level, stablecoins and RWA become the market focus.

A. Market Viewpoint

I. Macroeconomic Liquidity

The liquidity of currencies shows an improving trend. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged at five consecutive meetings, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed Chair did not provide clear guidance on a rate cut in September, emphasizing that inflation risks remain, and stated that the job market remains solid, which has dampened market expectations for a rate cut this year. The U.S. dollar index rose to a two-month high, and U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs. The cryptocurrency market, however, underperformed compared to U.S. stocks.

2. Overall Market Trends

This week, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at high levels, while altcoins have shown overall weak performance, with a significant decline in cryptocurrencies and stocks. The main focus of the market is on the Ethereum ecosystem.

Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:

Top 5 Gains: LOKA (300%), ZORA (60%), ZBCN (50%), KTA (40%), REKT (40%) Top 5 Decreases: TKX (60%), FARTCOIN (30%), M (30%), VIRTUAL (20%), GRASS (20%)

It is worth noting that:

• ZORA, as a socialfi project, has collaborated with Base chain applications and received support from a well-known foundation, skyrocketing 10 times from the bottom.
• The established stablecoin USDE and the newly launched USDTB under ENA continue to generate profits and have established a U.S. stock investment entity for continuous buying. ENA has also partnered with a lending platform to release USDE for revolving loans.
• CFX is a domestically compliant public chain project, and Hong Kong plans to issue stablecoin licenses in September.

3. On-Chain Data

Bitcoin's liquidity is facing a severe test. An early whale sold over 80,000 bitcoins through over-the-counter transactions, with a trading volume close to $10 billion. Despite this, the market has effectively absorbed this selling pressure, and currently, 97% of the circulating supply remains in profit.

The supply of stablecoins has continued to grow slightly by 1%.

Institutional funds continue to see net inflows. Ethereum has driven a surge in fund inflows, with the amount since the beginning of this year exceeding the total for the entire last year.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when it is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. Currently, the MVRV has fallen below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a state of loss. The current indicator is 2.6, close to the middle range.

4. Futures Market

Futures funding rate: This week's rate remains at the normal level of 0.01%. Generally, when the rate is between 0.05% and 0.1%, it indicates that there is a lot of long leverage, which may signify a short-term market top; when the rate is between -0.1% and 0%, it indicates that there is a lot of short leverage, which may signify a short-term market bottom.

Futures Open Interest: This week, Bitcoin futures open interest has started to decline.

Futures Long-Short Ratio: Currently at 1.1, indicating that market sentiment is neutral. Retail sentiment is usually viewed as a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. It's important to note that the long-short ratio data is quite volatile, which diminishes its reference significance.

5. Spot Market

This week, the price of Bitcoin has fallen, but the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin remains strong. A few small-cap tokens related to the stablecoin concept are leading the charge. The market shows a trend of rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to altcoins, and it is expected that the market risk may gradually accumulate in the later stages.

B. Stablecoins and RWA

1. Stablecoin Sector

The Vice President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated at the technical briefing on the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers that the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses is expected to be issued early next year. He emphasized that the approval threshold is quite high, and entering the "sandbox testing" does not guarantee that a license will be obtained. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has an open attitude towards stablecoins that can be pegged to fiat currencies, and applying institutions can choose to be linked to a single fiat currency or a basket of fiat currencies, but this must be clearly stated at the time of application.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will open the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications from August 1 to September 30. It is worth noting that the identity of all compliant stablecoin holders in Hong Kong must be verified, which is a stricter requirement than the previously proposed "white list" system. However, in the future, with the development of technology, this regulation may be appropriately relaxed.

A blockchain division of a certain e-commerce giant has registered the names "JCOIN" and "JOYCOIN", with the market speculating that these may be the names of its stablecoins. The registration details indicate that the related services include providing electronic funds transfers and cryptocurrency financial transactions through blockchain technology. The company is one of the participants in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin issuer sandbox program and has previously collaborated with a certain bank to test a corporate cross-border payment solution based on stablecoins.

A payment platform has announced the launch of a new payment feature in the US market, allowing small merchants to accept payments in over 100 different cryptocurrencies, including mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move significantly expands the platform's service range in the cryptocurrency payment sector, and is expected to encourage more merchants to engage in digital currency transactions.

WLFI will strategically invest $10 million in a synthetic dollar stablecoin project. This project allows users to mint USDf using various stablecoins, mainstream cryptocurrencies, or tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral, with the current circulation of USDf exceeding $1 billion. The reasons for its rapid growth include strong asset access capabilities, attractive yield mechanisms, and expectations of rewards and airdrops.

II. RWA Sector

The White House Digital Asset Working Group in the United States has released an important policy report that includes several core recommendations, such as requiring relevant regulatory agencies to clarify the rules for the registration, custody, and trading of crypto assets, promoting Congress to pass related legislation, supporting blockchain tokenized securities, and integrating crypto technology into traditional financial infrastructure.

The Hong Kong government has released the "2025 Digital Asset Policy Statement," confirming its commitment to building a global digital asset innovation center. Hong Kong has launched a licensing system for virtual asset trading platforms and will implement regulations for stablecoins. The government is advancing more related regulations and establishing a regulatory sandbox mechanism to encourage the testing of innovative technologies such as blockchain, AI, and tokenized assets. At the same time, Hong Kong is strengthening cooperation with international organizations and other regions to promote the establishment of digital asset regulatory standards and cross-border anti-money laundering mechanisms.

A major Japanese bank has acquired a high-rise office building in Osaka for approximately $680 million, planning to tokenize the asset through blockchain technology and issue digital securities. Institutional investors mainly participate through private REITs, while ordinary retail investors can purchase tokenized shares for fractional ownership through specific platforms. This initiative lowers the threshold for ordinary investors to participate in high-quality commercial real estate investments and enhances asset liquidity and market transparency.