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The US economy is cooling down, the Fed may shift to easing, and the crypto market welcomes favourable information.
Changes in the US Economy and the Outlook for the Crypto Market
Recently, the U.S. economy has shown a complex situation. On one hand, the GDP data is performing moderately well; on the other hand, the non-farm payroll data is concerning. Meanwhile, discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts are becoming increasingly heated. As participants in the crypto market, we need to closely monitor these economic trends, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been an important factor influencing the encryption market.
US Economy: Appears Steady, but Is It Cooling?
The latest GDP data released is initially exciting: the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth for the second quarter of 2025 reached 3.0%, a significant improvement compared to the -0.5% of the previous quarter. However, upon deeper analysis, it is found that this growth figure has some discrepancies. Imports have significantly decreased by 30.3%, mainly due to the previous hoarding behavior of companies caused by tariff increases now receding, and cooling demand leading to a reduction in imports.
The "private domestic final sales" (including consumption and private investment), which better reflects the economic essence, only grew by 1.2%, reaching a new low since 2022. The year-on-year growth rate of service industry spending has fallen below 2%, indicating a weakening of consumer spending willingness.
The signals from the job market are more direct. In July, non-farm employment increased by only 73,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The average new employment over the past three months is only 35,000, the lowest level since June 2020. The labor participation rate has dropped to 62.2%, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. Currently, the job market is exhibiting a "low demand for job seekers, cool hiring, and cautious layoffs" state, with most industries contracting except for the education and healthcare sectors.
Federal Reserve: Rate cut expectations rise, likely to be more accommodating in 2026
The recent remarks by the Federal Reserve Chairman have clearly softened. After the July FOMC meeting, he specifically emphasized the "downside risks to employment," suggesting that monetary policy will shift from "restricting the economy" to "neutral," essentially paving the way for interest rate cuts.
According to current economic data, interest rate cuts may start as early as September. This is in stark contrast to the situation during the trade war in 2018, when the Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates. This time, it is very likely that a loose policy will be adopted to offset the impact of tariffs, which is undoubtedly good news for the crypto market.
It is worth noting the changes in the Federal Reserve's voting committee in 2026. From the current list, it is clear that there is a significant increase in the number of committee members leaning towards easing.
Even the voting committee members regarded as hawkish are more inclined towards a steady approach rather than extreme tightening. This composition of the voting committee suggests that a more accommodative monetary policy may emerge in 2026, and an increase in liquidity usually stimulates the crypto market.
Key Economic Data Preview
Several important economic data will be released in mid-August, which may affect the price trend of cryptocurrencies:
These data will directly reflect inflation pressure, employment market conditions, consumer vitality, and economic confidence, thereby affecting the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Conclusion
For participants in the crypto market, the current situation is relatively clear: the cooling of the U.S. economy combined with the Federal Reserve's impending shift to easing is likely to improve the market liquidity environment. Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, in the medium to long term, the overall shift in monetary policy may be more worth paying attention to than any single policy. After all, in the crypto market, an increase in liquidity has always been the strongest driving factor.