The crypto market sentiment is low, and the return of funds to stablecoins indicates that institutions are returning.

Crypto Market Weekly Report: Market sentiment is low, stablecoin rise indicates capital inflow

Market Overview

This week, the overall trend of the crypto market is a fluctuating decline, with the market sentiment index dropping from 11% to 8%. The market capitalization of stablecoins has shown rapid rise, with USDT reaching $142.7 billion (, an increase of 0.49% ), and USDC reaching $57.2 billion (, an increase of 2.32% ), indicating that institutional funds are re-entering the market, primarily driven by the growth of U.S. funds. Although the release of economic data and the publication of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes eased concerns about a U.S. economic recession, the market has begun to anticipate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year starting in May, but this has not improved market sentiment. Recent policy fluctuations have caused significant volatility in Bitcoin prices, leading to increased panic in market sentiment, with most altcoins performing worse than the benchmark index.

Crypto market sentiment is low: stablecoin rise shows capital inflow|Frontier Lab Crypto Market Weekly Report

Bullish Underlying

BTC

Bitcoin has recently shown weak performance, mainly influenced by the following factors: on a macro level, Trump's tariff policy has raised inflation concerns, a decline in U.S. GDP expectations may trigger a short-term recession, the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement has been shelved, and there is uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; on the Bitcoin side, the high-level consolidation over the past two months has led to some long-term holders and large investors selling off, with a lack of new positive news and capital inflow, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve signed by Trump has not met market expectations, resulting in a significant drop and panic selling. Bullish reasons: first, the macro environment is improving, concerns about economic recession are alleviating, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year; second, on-chain data shows that most holders have not sold during this round of decline, and are beginning to accumulate.

S

Despite the decline of S token this week along with the market, Sonic's fundamentals remain solid. Sonic's TVL rose by 9.23%, and major on-chain DeFi projects have all seen growth. The APY of Sonic's on-chain DeFi projects remains high, with the main liquidity mining projects' APY reaching as high as around 30%, and the average lending interest rate rising to 14%. Sonic's daily revenue reaches $210,000, ranking 6th among all public chains, indicating frequent on-chain DeFi activity. The decline of S token primarily follows the market, with fundamentals unchanged, and the bullish logic still exists.

AAVE

AAVE has risen 21.38% this week against the trend, standing out among the top 50 market cap tokens. Aave's TVL increased by 5.86%, ranking second in growth among the top 20 DeFi projects. Aave's strong performance is mainly attributed to its proposal for optimizing governance and token economics (, which includes buyback tokens, increasing staking rewards, and optimizing liquidity ), as well as the White House's support for repealing DeFi trading report rules, reducing compliance burdens and stimulating innovation. Although it is currently just a proposal, Aave's solid financial strength and innovative attitude are expected to drive implementation. Aave's buyback proposal could trigger a new wave of buyback frenzy in the DeFi industry, injecting vitality into the currently sluggish sector.

BERA

The BERA token has pulled back this week along with the overall market, but the on-chain data and fundamentals of Berachain remain robust with growth. The TVL growth rate of the main DeFi projects in the Berachain ecosystem has slowed, but the LSD project Infrared Finance and the DEX project BEX continue to maintain high growth rates of 31.15% and 25.22% respectively. Infrared Finance keeps the APY of WBERA around 120%, and the APY of the BEX stablecoin pool remains around 16%, making high-yield stable returns extremely attractive to investors amid current panic sentiment. Meanwhile, the lending platform Dolomite offers borrowing rates as high as 48.08%, further stimulating the demand for BERA. The decline in BERA is mainly influenced by the overall market environment, and the project's fundamentals remain unchanged, with the logic for growth still valid.

Bearish Target

APE

APE, as the governance token of the Bored Ape community, mainly involves the NFT and GameFi sectors. However, in the current market, most of the market share in these sectors has been taken over by Meme coins, leading to a serious loss of users and funds. As a beneficiary of the last round of the metaverse and GameFi boom, APE has been almost ignored in this round of market activity. Additionally, APE will see the unlocking of 15.37 million tokens on March 16, accounting for 1.54% of the total locked amount. Most of these are held by early VCs, and after the project loses momentum, they may continue to sell off to recoup funds, putting significant selling pressure on APE.

APT

Aptos performed well this week, mainly due to Bitwise submitting a spot Aptos ETF application on March 5, which brought some expectations. However, Aptos was not included in the cryptocurrency reserve list announced by Trump earlier. If the White House announces reserve details at the first crypto summit this Friday, the selected tokens may attract market attention in the short term, and capital and attention may shift from other projects, which would be unfavorable for public chains like Aptos. In addition, APT will have 11.3 million tokens unlocked on March 12, accounting for 1% of the total locked amount. These tokens are all held by institutions, which may create ongoing selling pressure. Coupled with the shift in attention and capital, this may exacerbate market panic regarding APT.

MERL

The TVL of Merlin has significantly decreased by 12.44% this week, mainly due to its on-chain DEX, Restaking, and cross-chain projects. MerlinSwap dropped by 34.33%, and Pell Network decreased by 87.11%. As a BTC-L2, the Merlin ecosystem mainly includes DEX, lending, and Restaking projects. The decline in TVL reflects a large-scale shrinkage of its major ecosystem projects, with funds continuously withdrawing. Additionally, the recent lack of progress in BTC ecosystem projects and low market attention, combined with a significant drop in BTC, has led to the withdrawal of staked BTC. Although MERL only dropped by 1.8% this week, given the continuous outflow of funds in the on-chain ecosystem, it may face further declines next week.

TON

The TVL on the Toncoin chain has dropped significantly by 10.68% this week, with almost all ecosystem projects experiencing a decline in TVL. Historically, the Toncoin TVL has been on a downward trend since last year, especially after the popularity of on-chain mini-games based on Telegram faded, leading to a continuous outflow of funds. In recent months, SocialFi projects have been on the fringes of the industry, lacking hit projects, and the profit-making effect of on-chain mini-games has worsened, even falling below the APY of ordinary DeFi projects, resulting in a continuous outflow of funds. Coupled with the recent industry sentiment being low, the TON price has dropped significantly, and investors generally have a pessimistic outlook on the Toncoin ecosystem. It is expected that TON may continue to be in a downward trend.

Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index has dropped from 11% last week to 8%, entering the extreme fear range overall.

Hot Tracks

Aave

Aave performed outstandingly this week, with a TVL rise of 5.86%, ranking second among the top 20 DeFi projects. The price of AAVE rose by 21.38%, showing excellent performance among the top 50 tokens by market capitalization.

Reasons for Aave's popularity:

  1. Propose to optimize the ecosystem governance and token economic model, including launching a buyback plan, establishing new mechanisms to optimize fund management, enhancing staking rewards, etc.
  2. The White House supports the repeal of IRS rules regarding DeFi transaction reporting, aiming to reduce compliance burdens and attract capital and talent back, thereby stimulating innovation.

Future Outlook: As a benchmark project in DeFi, Aave's movements may influence the development direction of the entire industry. In the current market environment lacking innovation, Aave's shift to a dividend buyback model may lead a new trend, prompting more DeFi projects to focus on value capture capabilities. However, compared to Maker, Aave's current price-to-earnings ratio is relatively high, resulting in a lower purchase cost-performance ratio.

Berachain

Berachain's TVL rose by 17.21% this week, reaching $3.449 billion, ranking sixth among all public chains. However, the price of the BERA coin has retraced by 12.94%.

Reasons for the heat: On-chain DeFi projects maintain high APY to attract users. Infrared Finance WBERA staking APY remains around 120%, BEX stablecoin pool APY stays at 16%, and Dolomite lending rates reach as high as 48.08%.

Future Outlook: Berachain drives the economic flywheel with high APY, forming a positive cycle of "staking lock-up → liquidity release → DeFi empowerment → token appreciation → user return → re-staking → developer aggregation". The key is to maintain the APY above the rate of token depreciation to sustain arbitrage opportunities. Currently, the on-chain BERA staking ratio is about 30%, with room for growth, which is beneficial to reduce circulation and support the price.

Market Theme Overview

This week, the SocialFi track performed the best, while the PayFi track performed the worst.

  • PayFi: XRP, LTC, XLM account for 95.07%, with price changes of 18.96%, -18.47%, and 6.23% respectively.
  • SocialFi: TON and CHZ account for 94.39%, with a decline of -10.68% and -2.31%, respectively.

Crypto market sentiment is low: stablecoin rise shows capital inflow|Frontier Lab Crypto Market Weekly Report

Important Events Next Week

  • March 12: US February CPI year-on-year announcement
  • March 13: Web3 Amsterdam 2025 Conference held

Summary

This week, the crypto market has shown a complex pattern amidst fluctuations and panic sentiment. Although stablecoin capital has flowed back and some hot sectors have solid fundamentals, the market as a whole is still affected by macro policy uncertainty and insufficient investor confidence. Looking ahead, projects like BTC, AAVE, and Berachain are expected to stand out due to their fundamental advantages and innovative strategies. Investors need to continuously pay attention to on-chain data, the direction of macro policies, and the upcoming unlocking events' impact on market sentiment, in order to seize opportunities and avoid risks.

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FUD_Whisperervip
· 9h ago
Stir-fried noodles again
View OriginalReply0
FloorPriceWatchervip
· 20h ago
Are the long positions still playing dead?
View OriginalReply0
StakeHouseDirectorvip
· 20h ago
It's time to stock up on coins again in the Bear Market.
View OriginalReply0
HodlOrRegretvip
· 21h ago
Another round of Be Played for Suckers has arrived.
View OriginalReply0
JustHereForAirdropsvip
· 21h ago
It is another good time for retail investors to cut loss.
View OriginalReply0
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