Economic Data Forecast and Market Focus for Next Week

This week's economic data, although limited, clearly shows that demand is slowing down. Despite strong labor productivity in the U.S., the deceleration of economic activity and rising service prices indicate that the market is exhibiting signs of mild stagflation. Looking ahead to next week, the U.S. will release three key data points: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and employment market data. This data could further strengthen market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The following are the key events to watch in the market for the new week:

• August 15 ( Tuesday ) 20:30: US July CPI data released
• On August 15, (, Tuesday, ) at 22:00: Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech.
• August 17, ( Thursday ) 01:00: Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsbee will give a speech on monetary policy.
• On August 17, (, Thursday, ) at 1:30: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic shares insights on the U.S. economic outlook.
• August 17, ( Thursday ) 20:30: The United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 and the July PPI data.
• On August 18, (, Friday, ) at 02:00: Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a webinar.
• August 18, ( Friday ) 22:00: The United States releases the preliminary value of the one-year inflation rate expectation for August, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, and the month-on-month business inventory rate for June.

If the retail sales data next Friday shows that the economic situation is more severe than expected, the market's expectations for a rate cut in September and another cut before the end of the year may not change. However, this could limit and shorten the extent of the dollar's appreciation triggered by CPI data.

It is worth noting that Trump still intends to impose tariffs on more countries. Therefore, if the situation spirals out of control, there may soon be more sell-offs of American assets. These factors will all affect market direction, and investors need to closely monitor these economic indicators and policy trends to make informed investment decisions.