Bitcoin's bull flag officially takes effect after many years: BTC monthly line confirms a breakthrough at 116,000 USD, with the ultimate target of 250,000 USD on the way.

The historic breakthrough of the multi-year bull market flag has been confirmed by the monthly chart! Bitcoin (BTC) made a strong rebound after a deep pullback from $113,000, successfully reclaiming the key position at $116,000. The perfect filling of the CME gap signifies a complete technical strengthening. Renowned analyst Doctor Profit confirms a short-term ATH target of $140,000 to $145,000, while macro channel analysis shockingly reveals an ultimate target of $250,000! The monthly breakthrough opens up a 130% upside potential, and the two instances of market panic sell-offs cumulatively triggered $214 million in liquidations, which instead became the strongest whipsaw signal, thoroughly cleansing weak hands, and diamond hands completed the final build a position. Technical indicators show that the macro sideways consolidation has ended, and the largest bull market cycle in history has officially started; $250,000 is no longer a dream but a mathematical certainty!

Technical Holy Grail: Multi-Year Bull Flag Breakout, Monthly Line Confirms Historical Turning Point

The official effectiveness of the multi-year bull market banner can be regarded as the holy grail moment in the history of Bitcoin technical analysis. This super long cycle technical formation started to build from the $15,500 low in November 2022, undergoing a perfect consolidation over 26 months, forming a textbook-level triangular convergence flag. The current price has successfully broken through the upper edge of the flag at $115,000 and has stabilized at $116,000, with the monthly close confirming this epic breakthrough.

The analysis of technical patterns demonstrates astonishing geometric precision:

Flagpole height: from $15,500 to $73,737 (2021 peak), vertical distance $58,237

Flag formation: 26 months of sideways consolidation, perfectly digesting the previous gains.

Breakthrough target: According to the flag pattern calculation, the minimum upward target is 115,000 + 58,237 = 173,237 USD

Macro channel: 250,000 USD corresponds to the top of the long-term rising channel, in line with the Fibonacci 4.618 extension level.

The significance of the CME gap strategy cannot be ignored: After the price of BTC fell to 113,000 USD, it accurately filled the last CME gap at 114,000-115,000 USD. Gap theory suggests that this technical repair has cleared the final barrier for a subsequent significant rise, avoiding potential technical risks of a future pullback.

The monthly level confirmation has more macro guiding significance: the August monthly close stands firmly above 116,000 USD, marking Bitcoin's official entry into a new upward cycle. The historical win rate for monthly line breakthroughs is as high as 85%, with an average subsequent price increase exceeding 200%.

Liquidation Massacre: 214 Million USD Panic Achieves Strongest Whipsaw

The two market panic sell-offs became the most important cornerstones of this bull run. The consecutive crashes in early August dropped from $119,000 to $113,000, triggering a single long liquidation of $107 million, with a total liquidation scale reaching $214 million, setting a record for weekly liquidations.

Clearing data analysis reveals the essence of Whipsaw:

Leverage Long: Liquidation amount of 180 million USD, mainly concentrated in the 115,000-120,000 USD range.

Short covering: Liquidation amount of 34 million USD, short positions have been significantly compressed.

Spot Bottom Fishing: During the liquidation period, whale addresses saw a net inflow of 8,500 BTC, valued at approximately 1 billion USD.

Futures Premium: Quickly recovered from a negative premium of -2% to a positive premium of +0.8%, indicating a rapid reversal in market sentiment.

Psychological Game Analysis: These two declines perfectly triggered the retail panic selling and the strategic accumulation by institutions, leading to a counterparty exchange. Weak hands sold off in fear, while diamond hand investors took the opportunity to complete the final round of Build a Position. This qualitative change in the chip structure laid a solid foundation for the subsequent big pump.

Historical analog verification of the whipsaw effect: The massacre on March 12, 2020, triggered massive liquidations, after which BTC surged from $3,800 to $69,000; following the Luna crash in June 2022, it welcomed a historical high of $123,000 in 2024-2025.

Analyst Consensus: Led by Doctor Profit, $250,000 Becomes Mainstream Expectation

(Source: Trading View)

Top analysts have reached a rare consensus on the future trend of BTC, predicting a target that shows a stair-step upward characteristic:

Doctor Profit

Short-term target: $140,000 - $145,000, time window Q4 2025

Technical Basis: Macroeconomic sideways consolidation has ended, weekly golden cross established

Winning rate statistics: The hit rate of the last 12 major forecasts is 91.7%.

Macro Channel Analyst

Ultimate goal: $250,000, corresponding to the top of the long-term upward channel

Mathematical Model: Based on the logarithmic growth curve and the revised S2F model

Time Expectation: Q2-Q3 2026, in line with the global liquidity cycle

On-Chain Data Analyst

Support target: $160,000 - $180,000, based on the realized price (Realized Price) forecast.

Supply and Demand Model: Continuous inflow of ETFs + Corporate allocation + Decrease in supply

Catalyst: Trump policy dividends + institutional FOMO

Technical Analysis Consensus Summary

First target: $140,000-145,000 (up +23% from current)

Second target: $180,000-$200,000 (distance from current +72%)

Ultimate goal: $250,000 (up +130% from current)

Macroeconomic Catalyst: Liquidity Flood Meets Supply Scarcity

The macroeconomic environment has created perfect storm conditions for the rise of Bitcoin:

Liquidity Flood Incoming

The US M2 has re-entered an expansion cycle, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2%.

The global central bank QE policy returns, adding liquidity of 8 trillion dollars.

The Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy, and the depreciation of the yen is pushing up risk assets.

The People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement and interest rates, causing RMB liquidity to spill over into the cryptocurrency market.

Supply scarcity intensifies

Bitcoin ETF cumulative holdings surpassed 1.08 million BTC, accounting for 5.1% of the circulating supply.

Corporate financial allocation: Companies like MicroStrategy hold over 500,000 BTC.

Long-term holders: HODL accounts for 70.3% of BTC held for over 1 year.

Halving Effect of Mining: Daily Production 450 BTC vs ETF Daily Net Inflow 1,200 BTC

Favorable Policies Combined

Trump 401(k) pension policy opens the floodgates to trillion-dollar incremental funds.

The CBDC projects of various countries indirectly boost Bitcoin's status as digital gold.

Regulatory environment improvement, unprecedented acceptance on Wall Street

Supply and Demand Imbalance Mathematics: According to the current net inflow rate of ETFs, the BTC available for purchase will be sold out within 18 months, and the supply-demand conflict will be resolved in the form of a price surge.

Cycle Positioning: The Dawn of the Largest Bull Run in History

The four-year cycle theory combined with the halving effect provides a historical coordinate system for the current market.

Cycle Comparison Analysis:

2012-2013 Cycle: Highest Increase After Halving 5,500% ($5 → $260)

2016-2017 Cycle: Maximum increase after halving of 2,900% (650 USD → 20,000 USD)

2020-2021 Cycle: Maximum Pump After Halving 1,600% (4,000 USD → 69,000 USD)

2024-2026 Cycle: Expected maximum increase of 500-800% ($15,000 → $120,000-$250,000)

The periodic growth convergence aligns with the logarithmic growth pattern, yet the absolute increase remains astonishing. The target of $250,000 corresponds to a return of 130%, which is considered a conservative expectation in historical cycles.

Institutional Process Changes Cycle Characteristics:

Retail dominance → Institutional dominance, price fluctuations become more stable but trends become more solid.

Speculation-driven → Allocation-driven, holding period extended, selling pressure eased

Technical analysis → Fundamental analysis, valuation models are gradually established.

Current Position Assessment: Based on historical cycle comparisons, BTC is currently in the early stage of the bull run's second phase, with a time window of 12-18 months remaining until the cycle peak.

Risk Management: Key Support and Reversal Signals

Although the target of 250,000 USD is exciting, risk management remains the key to investment success.

Key Support Level Ladder:

First support: $115,000 (bull flag breakout point)

Second support: $108,000 (previous platform support)

Third support: $95,000 (200-day moving average)

Ultimate Defense Line: $85,000 (Bull-Bear Boundary)

Reversal Warning Signal:

The monthly close fell below $115,000, and the bull flag failed.

ETF funds have seen a net outflow of over 500 million USD for 5 consecutive days.

The Federal Reserve's unexpected hawkish rate hike worsens the liquidity environment.

Significant regulatory negative news or technical security incident

Position Management Suggestions:

25% Position: Build a Position in the range of 115,000-125,000 USD

25% position: follow the pump after breaking through 130,000-140,000 USD

25% position: $180,000-$200,000 second stage target

25% cash: to respond to unexpected risks or to take profits near ultimate targets

Conclusion

The historic breakthrough of the years-long bull run banner marks Bitcoin entering a decisive phase of the largest bull run cycle in history. $250,000 is no longer an unattainable fantasy, but a mathematical inevitability resonating from the triple factors of technical analysis, fundamental support, and macro environment. We are currently standing at a historical turning point, and the monthly confirmation breakthrough of $116,000 will be recorded in the history of Bitcoin's development. Investors are advised to seize this once-in-a-lifetime wealth opportunity, but at the same time, it is essential to manage risks properly, employing a laddered position building and staggered profit-taking strategy to ensure the safety of principal while pursuing excess returns. This is not only a victory of a technological revolution but also a milestone moment for digital assets to officially become an important component of the global financial system! Investment Warning: Bitcoin prices are highly volatile; please fully assess your risk tolerance before investing, rationally allocate assets, and avoid borrowing to invest.