The global asset landscape is being reshaped, and Crypto Assets have become a new balance pivot.

In early April, a series of policy changes triggered severe fluctuations in global assets. Subsequently, signals of policy adjustments alleviated market concerns, igniting a new wave of risk appetite, with Bitcoin leading a strong surge.

From the perspective of economic data, the macroeconomic hard indicators such as consumption and employment in the U.S. for April have not yet been subject to substantial shocks, but the risks have clearly increased. In March, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, which was better than expected. However, the new tariff policy has led to an 18.6% year-on-year increase in the import price index. Retail sales in March surged 1.4% month-on-month, but the actual consumption momentum, excluding automobiles, only grew by 0.5%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to February.

This short-term consumption overshoot stands in stark contrast to the significant decline in the consumer confidence index in April. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April is 50.8, significantly lower than the expected 53.5, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive month. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectation for April surged to 6.7%, the highest since November 1981; the 5-year inflation expectation preliminary value is 4.4%, the highest level since June 1991. The weakening of these soft indicators reveals the unsustainability of the economy.

The US economy is facing a stagflation dilemma of "high inflation - low growth - policy conflict." The latest report from the International Monetary Fund has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, with the expected growth rate for the US dropping to 1.8% and the Eurozone to 0.7%.

On the Federal Reserve side, the PCE inflation rate has been above the 2% target for 14 consecutive months. At the interest rate meeting on March 19, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, clearly caught in multiple dilemmas. The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that they will continue to observe the economic situation and consider adjusting interest rates only after waiting for more clear signals.

In April, US dollar assets faced a dual blow from policy uncertainty and economic downturn. At the beginning of the month, the three major US stock indices experienced a historic drop, with technology stocks being heavily affected. By the end of the month, US stocks saw a significant rebound, partly due to market expectations of potential adjustments to tariff policies and some tech giants reporting better-than-expected earnings. However, Wall Street generally believes this may only be a "technical repair in a bear market."

At the same time, Bitcoin has performed excellently, redefining its position among global assets. In mid to late April, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $94,000 mark, setting a new high for the year. This surge coincided with gold hitting new highs, highlighting its "digital gold" attribute. The stability of Bitcoin has attracted medium to long-term funds to accelerate their entry, pushing the total market capitalization of global Crypto Assets to over $3 trillion.

According to data, Bitcoin experienced a correction of over 30% from January to early April, which aligns with historical market cycle patterns. The decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional markets and the demand from investors for non-correlated assets have strengthened the confidence of long-term holders in Bitcoin's value as a store of value.

Currently, a total of 16.7 million BTC in various wallets are in a profitable state, a level commonly referred to as the "optimism threshold". Historically, similar patterns often lead to a bull market. After Bitcoin broke through $90,000, the number of active addresses on the blockchain surged by 15%, and the number of giant wallets reached a four-month high, further validating the bullish consensus among investors.

Driven by the surge in Bitcoin prices, the global total market value of Crypto Assets exceeded $3 trillion on April 23, with Bitcoin's market value reaching $1.847 trillion, surpassing several global tech giants and the precious metal silver, making it the fifth largest asset in the world. The long-term correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has shown a "decoupling," demonstrating independent market performance and changes in asset attributes.

Crypto assets are rewriting the underlying logic of global asset pricing. Analysts have significantly raised their target price for 2030 based on increased institutional interest and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as "digital gold."

Currently, the market rebound in April seems to be a temporary alleviation of concerns about market collapse and economic recession triggered by tariffs. Further trends will depend on whether the tariff war can be resolved in a timely manner, as well as the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Given that the most optimistic interest rate cut expectations are also set for after January, market divergence remains, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable. As traditional financial markets are caught in turbulence due to the tariff war and economic cycles, the independence and counter-cyclical properties of Crypto Assets may attract more funds seeking diversified asset allocation.