Bitcoin small-level W bottom construction and daily chart moving average breakout pullback risk strategy

Core logic and understanding of the essence of decline

• Accepting the reality of trading mentality: Holding onto losing positions is essentially an "acceptable choice"; if one truly cannot bear it, they would have already cut losses—traders must face the results directly, rather than finding "negative reasons" for a decline; the market's own trend ("the drop cannot be stopped") is the core.

• Resonance risk of multi-period signals: The 15-minute level needs to break the neckline to form a W bottom; otherwise, it will maintain a fluctuation between 114219-115978 dollars. If it does not rise above 115279 dollars at the hourly level, the weakness is difficult to change. The EMA20 moving average at the daily chart level has been broken; if it cannot recover, it will initiate a pullback on the daily chart. The EMA50 moving average (112928 dollars) is the key defense line; breaking it would mean "completely cool".

Key Level Trading Strategy

• Long Conditions:

1. Volume breakout at 115290 USD → right side chasing long (taking pullback), target 115279 → 115980 USD, stop loss on breakout;

2. 15-minute W bottom breaks the neckline → light position to follow long, target synchronized with the hourly level, if the neckline is lost then stop loss;

3. Daily chart closes above the EMA20 moving average → Increase long positions, relying on the EMA50 moving average (112928 USD) for defense.

• Shorting conditions:

1. Volume breaks below 114525 USD → short on the right side, target 114735 → 113785 USD, pullback cannot recover stop loss;

2. If it breaks below 114,735 USD on the 4-hour chart and does not recover → increase short position, targeting 112,005 USD, the pullback officially begins;

3. Daily chart EMA50 moving average breakdown → Short until a lower position, do not buy the dip without clear support.

Trends indicated by patterns and moving averages

• The significance of the small-level W bottom:

◦ This is only a short-term rebound signal, and it needs to break through $115,980 to trigger a larger move; otherwise, after a period of consolidation, it may still decline, so do not overestimate it.

• The decisiveness of the daily chart moving average:

◦ The EMA20 moving average is the medium-term trend line. Once it is lost, the EMA50 moving average becomes the last line of defense. If the moving averages diverge downwards, it confirms a daily chart pullback, and the operation must completely shift to short positions.

Discipline in Operations and Mindset Adjustment

• The balance of acceptance and response:

◦ Accept the uncertainty of the market, don't get caught up in "why it dropped," but rather execute strategies based on key levels like $115,279 and $114,735; it's better to set a stop loss than to hold on.

• Coordination between small and large levels:

◦ A 15-minute W bottom breakout requires a stable hourly level above $115,279; otherwise, it will be considered a minor pullback. Enter long positions quickly and exit quickly, without being greedy.

Summary: Weak signals of Bitcoin in multiple cycles are evident. The core operation: follow up with short positions relying on a break below $114,525, and for long positions, wait for a W bottom + moving average recovery confirmation. If EMA50 breaks, then it will be completely bearish, and do not counter the daily chart pullback.