Crypto Market Macro Report: A Critical Period for the Reconstruction of Pricing Logic

1. Overview

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market is experiencing a transition from a bullish trend to a short-term correction. Although various segments are taking turns leading market sentiment, the impact of macroeconomic pressures is becoming increasingly significant. The instability in global trade, the erratic nature of U.S. economic data, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, has led the market into a crucial phase of repricing. Meanwhile, the marginal changes in policy dynamics are beginning to surface: certain political figures' positive remarks on cryptocurrencies have sparked investor expectations that Bitcoin may become a strategic reserve asset for nations. Currently, the market is still in a "correction phase of a medium-term uptrend," but structural opportunities are gradually forming, and the pricing benchmarks are undergoing macro-level shifts.

II. Macroeconomic Environment: Old Logic Collapses, New Anchor Points Not Yet Established

In May 2025, the crypto market is at a critical stage of macro logic reshaping. The traditional pricing framework is rapidly disintegrating, while new valuation benchmarks have yet to form, resulting in a "vague and anxious" macro environment for the market. Economic data, central bank policy orientations, and marginal changes in global geopolitics and trade relations are all affecting the behavioral patterns of the entire crypto market in a posture of "new order amid instability."

First, the monetary policy of a certain country's central bank is shifting from "data dependence" to a new stage of "political and stagflation pressure games." Recent inflation data shows that while inflationary pressures have eased, overall stickiness remains, especially the rigidity of service prices, which, intertwined with structural shortages in the labor market, makes it difficult for inflation to quickly decline. Although the unemployment rate has shown a marginal increase, it has not triggered the lower limit for a reversal of central bank policy, leading to market expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts being postponed from the originally likely June to the fourth quarter or even later. Although the central bank governor does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts within the year in public statements, his language emphasizes "cautious observation" and "adherence to long-term inflation targets," making the vision of liquidity easing seem increasingly distant in reality.

This uncertain macro environment has directly affected the funding pricing basis of crypto assets. Over the past three years, crypto assets enjoyed a valuation premium under the backdrop of "zero interest rates + broad liquidity easing," but now, in the latter half of a cycle with high interest rates, traditional valuation models are facing systemic failure. Although Bitcoin has maintained a fluctuating upward trend driven by structural funding, it has never formed the momentum to break through the next important threshold, reflecting the disintegration of its "alignment path" with traditional macro assets. The market is beginning to move away from the old linkage logic of "Nasdaq rising = BTC rising" and is gradually realizing that crypto assets require independent policy anchors and role anchors.

At the same time, the geopolitical variables that have affected the market since the beginning of the year are undergoing significant changes. The previously heated topic of trade friction among major countries has notably cooled down. Recently, the shift in focus by certain political teams towards the "reshoring of manufacturing" indicates that conflicts are unlikely to escalate further in the short term. This has led to a temporary retreat from the logic of "geopolitical hedging + Bitcoin as a risk-resistant asset," with the market no longer granting a premium to the "hedging anchor" of crypto assets, and instead looking for new policy support and narrative momentum. This is also an important backdrop for the structural rebound in the crypto market since mid-May turning into high-level fluctuations, and even for the continuous outflow of funds from certain on-chain assets.

On a deeper level, the entire global financial system is facing a systemic process of "anchor reconstruction." The US dollar index is consolidating at a high level, the interrelationship among gold, government bonds, and US stocks has been disrupted, and crypto assets are caught in between, lacking the central bank endorsement typical of traditional safe-haven assets and failing to be fully incorporated into the risk control framework of mainstream financial institutions. This "neither a risk nor a safe haven" intermediate state results in a "relatively ambiguous zone" for the market pricing of main assets like BTC and ETH. This ambiguous macro anchor further transmits to the downstream ecosystem, leading to various segmented tracks experiencing bursts of activity, but struggling to sustain them. Without the support of macro incremental funds, the local prosperity on the chain is prone to fall into a "quick ignition - rapid extinguishment" rotation trap.

We are entering a "de-financialization" turning window dominated by macro variables. At this stage, market liquidity and trends are no longer driven by simple correlations between assets, but depend on the redistribution of policy pricing power and institutional roles. If the crypto market wants to usher in the next round of systemic re-evaluation, it must wait for a new macro anchor------it could be the establishment of Bitcoin as an official strategic reserve asset in certain countries, or the initiation of a clear interest rate reduction cycle by a major central bank, or the acceptance of on-chain financial infrastructure by multiple governments worldwide. Only when these macro-level anchors are truly established will there be a comprehensive return of risk appetite and a resonant upward movement in asset prices.

Currently, the crypto market needs to stop being obsessed with the continuation of old logic and instead calmly identify the subtle signs of new anchor points emerging. Those funds and projects that can first understand the changes in the macro structure and lay out their positions in advance for the new anchor points will hold the initiative in the next round of the real surge.

3. Policy Trends: Stablecoin Bill Approved, State-Level Bitcoin Reserve Program Launched

In May 2025, the Senate of a certain country officially passed an important bill regarding stablecoins, becoming one of the most institutionally influential stablecoin legislative proposals globally after the EU's MiCA. The passage of this bill not only marks the establishment of a regulatory framework for USD stablecoins but also sends a clear signal: stablecoins are no longer a technological experiment or a gray financial tool, but have become an integral part of the core of sovereign financial systems, serving as an organic extension of the influence of the digital dollar.

The core content of the bill focuses on three aspects: First, it establishes the licensing management authority of central banks and financial regulatory agencies over stablecoin issuers, setting capital, reserve, and transparency requirements equivalent to those of banks; Second, it provides a legal foundation and standard interface for the interoperability of stablecoins with commercial banks and payment institutions, promoting their widespread application in retail payments, cross-border settlements, and financial interoperability; Third, it establishes a "technology sandbox" exemption mechanism for decentralized stablecoins, preserving innovative space for open finance within a compliant and controllable framework.

From a macro perspective, the passage of this bill has triggered a triple structural expectation shift in the crypto market. First, a new paradigm of "on-chain anchoring" has emerged in the international extension path of the dollar system. As the "federal check" of the digital age, the on-chain circulation capability of stablecoins not only serves internal payments within Web3 but may also act as part of the dollar's policy transmission mechanism, reinforcing its competitive advantage in emerging markets. This also means that regulatory agencies are no longer simply suppressing crypto assets, but are choosing to incorporate some "channel rights" into the national financial system, legitimizing stablecoins while also preemptively positioning the dollar in the future digital financial war.

Secondly, there is a reassessment of on-chain financial structures driven by the legalization of stablecoins. The ecosystem of certain compliant stablecoins will迎来流动性爆发期, and the logic of on-chain payments, on-chain credit, and on-chain ledger reconstruction will further activate the demand for DeFi and RWAs asset bridging. Especially in the context of traditional financial environments with high interest rates, high inflation, and regional currency fluctuations, the attributes of stablecoins as "cross-system arbitrage tools" will further attract emerging market users and on-chain asset management institutions. Less than two weeks after the bill was passed, the daily trading volume of certain platform stablecoins hit a new high for 2023, and the circulating market value of a certain stablecoin increased by nearly 12% month-on-month, with the liquidity focus beginning to shift from certain stablecoins to compliant assets.

More structurally significant is that multiple state governments have quickly followed up with the release of Bitcoin strategic reserve plans after the bill was passed. As of late May, one state has already passed the Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, and several other states have announced that they will allocate part of their fiscal surplus as Bitcoin reserve assets, citing reasons such as inflation hedging, diversification of fiscal structure, and support for the local blockchain industry. In a sense, this behavior marks the transition of Bitcoin from a "grassroots consensus asset" to being included in the "local fiscal balance sheet," representing a digital reconstruction of the logic of reserve currency in the golden age of states. Although the scale is still small and the mechanism is unstable, the political signal it conveys is far more important than the size of the assets: Bitcoin is beginning to become a "government-level choice."

These policy dynamics together contribute to a new structural landscape: stablecoins become the "on-chain dollar", Bitcoin becomes "local gold", with each serving different roles, respectively from the perspectives of payment and reserves, coexisting and hedging against the traditional currency system. This situation provides another safe anchoring logic in the year 2025, marked by geopolitical financial fragmentation and declining institutional trust. This also explains why the crypto market maintained high-level fluctuations in mid-May despite poor macro data (persistent high interest rates and a rebound in CPI)------because the structural shift at the policy level has established long-term certainty support for the market.

After the bill is passed, the market's reassessment of the "bond yield-stablecoin yield" model will also accelerate the alignment of stablecoin products with "on-chain bonds" and "on-chain money market funds". In a sense, the future digital debt structure may be partially managed by stablecoins. The expectation of bond on-chainization is gradually becoming clearer through the institutionalization of stablecoins.

4. Market Landscape: Intense Track Rotation, Main Line Still to be Confirmed

The crypto market in the second quarter of 2025 exhibits a highly tense structural contradiction: on the macro level, policy expectations are warming up, and stablecoins and Bitcoin are moving towards "institutional embedding"; however, on the micro structural level, there is still a lack of a truly market-consensual "main track". This has led to an overall market performance characterized by noticeable rotation frequency, weak sustainability, and transient liquidity "idling". In other words, while funds are still circulating on-chain, the sense of direction and certainty has yet to be reconstructed, which stands in sharp contrast to the certain "single track main rising wave" cycles of 2021 or 2023.

Firstly, from the sector performance perspective, in May 2025, the crypto market experienced an extremely fragmented structure. Multiple fields took turns in a "pass the parcel" style rally, with each sub-track's explosive cycle lasting less than two weeks, followed by a rapid dissipation of subsequent follow-up funds. For instance, a certain public chain's Meme once triggered a new wave of FOMO frenzy, but due to weak community consensus and market sentiment being overdrawn, the market quickly corrected from its high position; the AI track, like some leading projects, exhibited "high Beta and high volatility" characteristics, heavily influenced by the sentiment of certain heavyweights, lacking continuity in spontaneous narratives within the chain; while some RWA segments, though certain, entered a "price-value divergence" consolidation period as airdrop expectations have partially been realized.

The data on capital flow indicates that this rotation phenomenon essentially reflects a structural liquidity flood rather than the initiation of a structural bull market. Since mid-May, the market capitalization growth of certain stablecoins has stagnated, while others have seen a slight rebound. The daily trading volume on on-chain DEXs has remained in the fluctuating range of $2.5~3 billion, shrinking nearly 40% compared to the peak in March. There has been no significant influx of new funds into the market; rather, the existing capital is seeking short-term trading opportunities in "locally high volatility + high sentiment". In this situation, even with frequent shifts in sectors, it is difficult to form a strong mainline trend, which further amplifies the speculative rhythm akin to "passing the parcel", leading to a reduced willingness for retail participation and exacerbating the disconnection between trading enthusiasm and social enthusiasm.

On the other hand, the phenomenon of valuation layering has intensified. The valuation premium for first-tier blue-chip projects is significant, and certain leading...