Crypto Market Weekly Review: New Social Models Rising, Asset Management Companies Layout Solana ETF

Market Overview

Macroeconomic Environment

Current macro liquidity is tightening. The US dollar index is close to its yearly high, putting significant pressure on risk assets. The strength of the dollar not only stems from the stickiness of US inflation and delayed rate cut expectations but also reflects a market reassessment of geopolitical risks. It is worth noting that, against the backdrop of this election year, the US stock market remains strong. In contrast, the crypto market appears relatively weak.

market行情

This week, Bitcoin has fallen below an important support level. Recently, several countries and major exchanges have experienced significant selling pressure. The Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate has strengthened, and altcoins have rebounded first. The main theme of the market rebound revolves around the Ethereum ecosystem.

Projects worth noting include:

1. An L2 project under a certain NFT platform: adopts a points airdrop model and has not yet been listed on mainstream exchanges.

2. A certain POW public chain: The first ecological token plan of this chain is about to go live on the mainnet, attracting large miners to participate in mining.

3. An algorithmic stablecoin project on a smart contract platform: lacking support from mainstream investment institutions, recently launched a new round of mining activities.

Bitcoin Analysis

on-chain data

The market has entered a recession phase. Since June, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the 3-month average holding cost. Historical experience shows that if this trapped structure persists, it may lead to a deterioration of investor confidence, making the adjustment deeper and more prolonged. In previous bull markets, similar large adjustments occurred an average of 5 times.

The supply growth of stablecoins has slowed, reflecting a lack of new capital inflow into the market. Institutional funds have shown a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, but the inflow of altcoins has increased.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z score has fallen below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are overall in a state of loss. Currently, this indicator is at 1.8, in the middle stage.

futures market

The funding rate has slightly decreased this week. The current rate level indicates that there is a lot of long leverage, which may be a signal of a short-term market top.

The open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to decline. The long-short ratio is 2.4, reflecting a strong bottom-fishing sentiment among retail investors, suggesting that the market may not have reached its bottom yet.

spot market

Bitcoin fell below an important technical support level. The market has been trading sideways since hitting an all-time high of $73,000 in March. The overall trading volume of centralized exchanges fell to the level of the end of last year, but the trading volume of decentralized exchanges remained stable. The Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate continues to strengthen, and the main opportunities in the future are likely to revolve around the Ethereum ecosystem.

Market Data

public chain locked amount

This week's total locked amount is $95.3 billion, a decrease of 5.6% compared to the previous week. The locked amounts of mainstream public chains generally declined, with Ethereum down 8%, TRON down 6%, BSC down 5%, Arbitrum down 9%, BASE down 4%, a certain L2 project plummeting by 27%, Polygon down 5%, and Optimism down 8%. Notably, the TON chain has risen against the trend by 107% this month.

NFT market

This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market have generally declined significantly. CryptoPunks fell by 13%, BAYC fell by 17%, Pudgy Penguins fell by 28%, Space Doodles fell by 35%, Azuki fell by 23%, The Captainz fell by 16%, MAYC fell by 22%, and LilPudgys fell by 29%. Only Milady rose against the trend by 4%.

Overall trading volume has slightly decreased, with blue-chip project trading volume declining by about 20% week-on-week. The number of first-time buyers and repeat buyers is also on a downward trend. Overall, the NFT market remains sluggish, and the market environment is extremely challenging.