The U.S. Presidential Election is Approaching: Key Dates, Core Highlights, and Potential Impact Analysis

In the coming week, global attention will focus on the U.S. elections. This article outlines the key time nodes of the election, core highlights, and anticipates the potential impacts it may bring. Starting from Tuesday, November 5th, the election results will be announced successively, and the progress of the results will continue to affect asset prices.

The results of the US elections may be announced or continue for about a week.

Due to the differences in policies regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots across states, there are variations in the timing of election result announcements. The overall election timeline is as follows:

1. Election Day: The Tuesday after the first Monday in November, when voters cast their ballots for president and vice president candidates.

2. Electoral College voting: The United States uses the Electoral College system, which has a total of 538 electoral votes, and a candidate must obtain at least 270 to win.

3. The Electoral College officially votes: held on the second Monday of December.

4. Congressional Certification: On January 6 of the following year, the new Congress will hold a meeting to formally tally the results of the Electoral College.

5. Presidential Inauguration: On January 20, the elected President and Vice President take the oath of office.

On November 5th (U.S. time), most swing states will start voting from 6 AM and continue until the results are announced between 7 PM and 9 PM. Some key states may announce results later:

• California: Allows for a longer mail-in ballot receipt period, possibly one of the last states in the nation to announce complete results.

• Pennsylvania: Mail-in ballots are only processed on Election Day, leading to a slower counting process.

• Michigan and Wisconsin: Handling mail-in ballots on Election Day, usually completed by the evening of the following day.

• Nevada: Allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, results may be delayed by a few days.

• North Carolina: Allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, with results typically announced a week later.

The Importance of House Elections

The results of the House of Representatives election are equally crucial, as they determine the implementation of future fiscal policies in the United States. The House of Representatives, as the lower house of Congress, has the following main powers:

• Legislation: Drafting and voting on bills, completing legislative functions in conjunction with the Senate.

• Fiscal Authority: All financial and tax bills must be introduced in the House of Representatives first.

• Impeachment power: can initiate impeachment against the president or federal officials.

The distribution of political parties in the House of Representatives determines the difficulty for the president to implement economic policies. House elections are held every two years, coinciding with the presidential election year. Because House districts are smaller, results are usually announced earlier than those of the presidential election.

Potential Impact of Election Results

There are significant differences in the economic policies of the two parties:

Democratic candidates advocate for "opportunity economics," which focuses on increasing government investment and raising taxes to enhance the income level of middle-class families. The market expects that this may further increase the government's fiscal burden, undermine the credit of the dollar, and simultaneously drive up inflation.

The economic policy of the Republican candidates can be summarized as: low domestic tax rates and high tariffs on foreign goods; reducing the exchange rate of the dollar against major manufacturing countries through means such as interest rate cuts; opposing the new energy industry and advocating for the boosting of traditional energy industries. These policies may bring higher inflationary pressures.

If the Democratic candidate is elected, it could lead to a short-term pullback in BTC prices, followed by a re-entry into a fluctuating upward phase. Other types of crypto assets may experience a bull market due to the wealth effect, similar to the broad rally after the pandemic stimulus in 2021.

If the Republican candidate is elected, the BTC price may experience profit-taking in the short term, but then it could quickly open an upward channel. The other cryptocurrency asset markets may find it difficult to see a comprehensive bull market, more likely to benefit from the wealth effect brought about by the appreciation of BTC, with funds possibly rotating between multiple hot sectors.

If the elected party becomes a "minority president", the situation will become more complex. The game between the two parties regarding economic policy will continue, and the introduction of any bill may trigger intense market games, which may significantly increase price volatility at that time.