BTC rebounded to a key position, ETF capital inflow provides support

This week, Bitcoin opened at $82562.50 and finally closed at $86092.94, with a weekly increase of 4.28% and a fluctuation of 7.71%. This marks the second consecutive week of gains, but trading volume has declined for three consecutive weeks. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is operating within a descending channel and is approaching the upper edge of the channel.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week sent a dovish signal, indicating that it will take intervention measures if economic issues arise and suggesting that there may be two rate cuts this year. Subsequently, the US stock market stabilized, along with a significant inflow of funds into spot ETFs, driving the price of Bitcoin to stabilize and rebound to the upper edge of the descending channel.

Next week, the U.S. will release PCE data, which could become a key factor in determining the direction of BTC prices.

Macroeconomic and Financial Data

On March 19, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, maintaining the key lending rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Federal Reserve also hinted at a potential rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025 and announced an adjustment to the pace of its bond tapering.

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the economic growth forecast has been downgraded and emphasized that the tariff policy is a major factor driving up inflation. However, the market is more focused on the Fed's commitment to take action when the economic situation deteriorates.

Starting from April 1, the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of its balance sheet reduction, lowering the cap on U.S. Treasury bond sales from $25 billion to $5 billion per month. This move is seen as a boost to the bond market. The Federal Reserve has demonstrated a relatively "dovish" stance, showing its concern for both achieving inflation targets and maintaining stability in employment and financial markets.

Despite the fundamental issues such as chaotic tariff policies and economic stagnation remaining unchanged, the market has begun to stabilize and rebound. The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.25% over the week. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones rose by 0.17%, 0.51%, and 1.2%, respectively. The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined by 1.59% and 1.39%, respectively.

Risk aversion remains, with London gold achieving a three-week consecutive rise, increasing by 1.23% this week to close at 3023.31 USD/ounce.

Stablecoins and Bitcoin Spot ETF

The biggest variable in the funding situation is the breakthrough signal from the Bitcoin spot ETF. After five consecutive weeks of decline, this week has seen a positive inflow, with all five trading days recording a net inflow of a total of $1.05 billion. This large-scale inflow has become a strong support for the Bitcoin price to rebound from the bottom.

In terms of stablecoins, there was an inflow of 958 million USD throughout the week. The total inflow across all channels reached 1.95 billion USD, providing material support to the market.

The Bitcoin spot ETF channel funds once again show the role of a stabilizing force. Future market trends need to closely monitor this factor. Of course, ETF funds are fundamentally constrained by the performance of US stocks, which increases the difficulty of predicting Bitcoin prices.

Selling Pressure and Sell-off

With the price rebound, market selling pressure has significantly weakened to 114,992 units. Data shows that long-term holders reduced their holdings by 3,284 units this week, while short-term holders reduced their holdings by 111,709 units.

Long-term holders increased their positions by 73,000 coins over the week, while the exchange inventory decreased by nearly 7,000 coins. The selling pressure from short-term holders is being continuously absorbed, indicating that long-term investors recognize the current price.

Cyclical Indicators

According to relevant indicators, the Bitcoin market cycle indicator is 0.375, in a rising continuation phase.