ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract 15-Minute Strategy Analysis (Based on Data from July 30, 2025, 16:30)

Core logic: Long and short critical point game, bidirectional breakthrough trading
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 3820.71 (slightly up 0.10%), with a fluctuation of 0.37% (3806.52-3920.72), and the long lower shadow confirms strong support at 3806.
Support: 3806.52 (intraday low), 3800 (psychological level); Resistance: 3840 (moving average pressure), 3850 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
Indicator Signal:
MACD bottom divergence prototype: DIF(4.86) flattens and tilts upward, green bars(-2.34) narrow, bearish momentum weakens.
Abnormal trading volume: 22,070 (significantly lower than the 5/10 day average of 40K/38K), the drop did not increase the volume, support is effective.
Key Indicators: The chart shows a dense "buy" signal in the 3806-3812 range, with clear institutional buying support.
Low-risk strategy: Buy on support levels, follow through on breakouts at resistance levels.
Long Entry Conditions (Main Strategy):
The price stabilized after a pullback to the 3808-3812 range (above the intraday low), along with the MACD green bars continuing to narrow.
Target: 3828 (V-shaped neckline) → 3840 (moving average resistance).
Stop loss: 3803 (break below previous low +0.1%).
Short Hedge Conditions (Secondary Strategy):
The price rebounded to 3838-3840 without significant volume (VOLUME<25,000), and the MACD has turned green.
Target: 3820→3810.
Stop Loss: 3845 (breakthrough resistance zone).
Breakthrough chasing order conditions:
Breakout volume over 3845 (VOLUME>35,000), chase long to 3860;
The volume broke below 3805, shorting to 3790.
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating window: 16:45-18:00 (European late market + early US market overlap period).
Position holding time: ≤25 minutes, take profit at 60% when profit reaches 15-20 USD.
Position Management: ≤4% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥3:1 (e.g., stop loss $5, take profit $15).
Strategic Advantage: Long positions based on strong support areas with long lower shadows, superior risk-reward ratio; breakout follow-up mechanism to capture trend initiation points.
Risk Warning: If the support of 3808 or the resistance of 3840 is not reached before 18:00, abandon the trade due to insufficient volume.
Action Summary:
① First choice long position: 3810 light position to go long, stop loss at 3803, target 3828→3840.
② Auxiliary short position: 3840 faced resistance for a short sell, stop loss at 3845, target at 3820. If it breaks through the key level, follow the trend to chase orders. #BTCÐ Launchpool收益超3%# #Alpha 积分系统上线# #以太坊十周年#