Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle about to end? Bitwise CIO says so.

Matt Hougan believes that the iconic four-year cycle of Bitcoin has come to an end. He explains that this cycle has ended primarily because the fundamental forces driving its formation are weakening.

Secondly, the impact of the Bitcoin halving event is not constant, but gradually diminishes over time, and its "magic" that occurs every four years is fading.

At the same time, the macroeconomic environment has also changed. Unlike the high interest rate environments in 2018 and 2022 that put pressure on the market, the currently relatively favorable interest rate cycle is providing support for the cryptocurrency market.

In addition, with the gradual improvement of regulatory frameworks and the increasing institutionalization of the cryptocurrency sector, the risks that could lead to a sudden market collapse are also decreasing. Of course, he also cautioned that the rise of "finance companies" is an emerging risk factor that the market needs to pay attention to.

It is particularly important that the current market is being influenced by some more powerful forces. Hougan pointed out that ETF funds have been continuously flowing in since 2024, forming a long-term trend expected to last 5 to 10 years.

Institutional adoption is still in its infancy. For example, the approval of ETFs is still expanding, and large institutions such as pension funds and endowments are also beginning to seriously consider allocating to crypto assets. Progress on the regulatory front is equally notable, with positive changes since January 2025 expected to influence the coming years.

Finally, Wall Street is gradually turning its attention to the cryptocurrency space and will invest billions of dollars in the coming quarters and years. The passage of the "Genius Act" this month has also accelerated this trend.

In summary, Hougan predicts that these structural forces that are favorable to cryptocurrencies in the long term will gradually surpass and replace the influence of the traditional four-year cycle (if such influence can still be considered a "cycle"). Therefore, he concludes that 2026 may be a year of strong performance.

Although he acknowledges that market fluctuations are inevitable, it may also present a picture of "sustained and stable prosperity" rather than the explosive supercycles seen in the past. Overall, he holds a relatively optimistic view of the cryptocurrency market for the next few years.

#比特币 # four-year cycle