The global financial market has experienced a huge shock, and Crypto Assets have been severely hit.

Recently, the global financial markets have experienced a severe turbulence. The three major U.S. stock indices have continued to decline, and European and Asian stock markets have also seen significant drops. The commodity markets have not been spared either, with both oil and gold prices falling. The Crypto Assets market has also not been immune, with Bitcoin dropping more than 10% in two days and Ethereum plummeting by 20%. The entire financial market presents a "sea of green."

The culprit behind this market turmoil seems to be the newly implemented reciprocal tariff policy. Although policymakers liken it to "taking medicine for an illness," it remains uncertain whether it is a cure or a poison that quells thirst. The global market is shrouded in a haze of impending storm, with investors keenly watching when this storm will settle.

The impact of the countervailing tariff policy is more severe than expected. The United States announced a "minimum benchmark tariff" of 10% on its trading partners and imposed higher tariffs on certain trading partners. This move has triggered a chain reaction globally. Many countries and regions have taken countermeasures, and the shadow of a global trade war has begun to emerge.

In this storm, the Crypto Assets market was no exception. The price of Bitcoin once fell below $75,000, Ethereum dropped below $1,500, and other small-cap Crypto Assets were even more severely hit. According to data platforms, nearly 490,000 people were liquidated in just one day, with liquidation amounts exceeding $1.6 billion.

Global market confidence has plummeted, and panic sentiment has surged. Many economists and business leaders are beginning to warn that the United States may have already entered a recession. According to a survey, nearly 70% of business leaders expect an economic downturn in the U.S., with more than half believing that the recession will occur this year.

However, despite the market's intense reaction, policymakers seem unfazed. Reports indicate that over 50 economies have engaged with the United States regarding tariff policies, but relevant parties have stated that they will not suspend reciprocal tariffs.

The main purposes of the equal tariff policy are threefold: first, to reverse trade imbalances and deficits; second, to increase fiscal revenue; and third, to serve as a tool for diplomacy and negotiation. However, at present, it appears that the destructive impacts of this policy have exceeded expectations.

The market is more concerned about the impact of the tariff policy on the recession of the U.S. Research institutions generally believe that this policy will drive up short-term inflation and have a negative impact on GDP growth. Some institutions have raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%.

In the face of this situation, the Federal Reserve is under significant pressure. The market expects multiple interest rate cuts before the end of the year, and the possibility of a rate cut in May is also increasing. However, whether the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts in May to alleviate market panic remains to be seen.

Despite the drastic market fluctuations in the short term, considering that the balance sheets of the private sector in the United States are in good condition, the probability of a long-term recession may not be as high as imagined. Several countries have begun to take measures to stabilize the market, which also indicates that yesterday's plunge may be more due to panic rather than a genuine recession.

For the Crypto Assets market, although there has been a certain degree of rebound, market sentiment remains cautious. Most holders adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the trading volume is not high. If tariff policies can be adjusted, the likelihood of assets stopping their decline and rebounding is relatively high. However, whether a true reversal can be achieved still depends on the overall economic situation and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies.

Currently, market views are polarized. Some analysts believe there is still downside potential for selling, while others hold a relatively optimistic outlook for the future. Technical analysis leans towards pessimism, with mainstream trading platform funding rates indicating an overall bearish market.

In the current situation, it seems quite difficult to reach a complex trade agreement in the short term. The Federal Reserve is facing multiple internal and external pressures, and the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting released this Thursday may provide more clues. Whether the market will experience significant volatility again remains to be seen.