Can Bitcoin Become the Pioneer of Financial Paradigm Shift?

Recently, a notable suggestion was made by American politicians: to use the profits from gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin in a "budget-neutral" way to enhance the national Bitcoin reserves. This proposal coincides with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially incorporating Bitcoin into the global economic statistical system. With Bitcoin included in the "Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual," central banks and statistical agencies of various countries are required to record Bitcoin transactions and holdings in relevant reports. This not only marks the formal recognition of Bitcoin's influence in the international financial system but also signifies its gradual evolution from a speculative asset to a more institutionalized financial instrument.

However, this proposal raises a fundamental question: Is gold still an undisputed safe-haven asset? If the answer is yes, why have no companies adopted aggressive strategies similar to those in the Bitcoin market to accumulate gold over the long term for thousands of years? As countries around the world reassess the positioning of this emerging asset in the financial system, the United States seems to have indicated its stance. Can Bitcoin become the vanguard of a shift in the financial paradigm?

The Truth About the U.S. Gold Reserves

The United States has the world's largest official gold reserves, totaling 8,133.5 tons, a position it has maintained for 70 years. However, this gold has long been stored in specific locations and has not circulated in the market. Since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the U.S. gold reserves have no longer been used to support the dollar, but rather exist as a strategic reserve asset.

Therefore, if the United States wants to use the "surplus of gold reserves" to purchase Bitcoin, the most likely way is through gold-related financial instruments, rather than selling physical gold. Historically, the U.S. Treasury has created dollar liquidity by adjusting the book value of gold without increasing the actual gold reserves. This method is essentially a "revaluation" operation of assets and can be seen as an alternative form of debt monetization.

Currently, the U.S. Treasury has fixed the book value of gold on its balance sheet at a level far below the market price. If Congress approves an increase in the book price of gold, the Treasury's gold reserves will see a significant increase in book value. Based on this new price, the Treasury can apply to the Federal Reserve for more gold certificates, thereby obtaining corresponding new dollars.

This means that the United States can implement a "stealth dollar devaluation" by adjusting the book value of gold, while generating significant fiscal revenue. These new dollar funds can be used to purchase Bitcoin, further increasing the United States' Bitcoin reserves. The gold revaluation not only provides financial support for Bitcoin purchases but may also drive an increase in Bitcoin demand in a broader financial context.

However, while this approach may superficially drive other institutions and investors to follow suit and attract more liquidity into the Bitcoin market, it may also bring risks. If the market determines that the credit of the US dollar is declining in the long term, the global asset pricing system may change, and the price discovery mechanism of Bitcoin may become more uncertain.

The non-free nature of the gold market

If the U.S. Treasury adopts the method of revaluing gold to exchange surplus "book value" for dollars to purchase Bitcoin, the Bitcoin market may experience a short-term frenzy, but at the same time, it faces the risks of tightened regulation and liquidity control. This situation is similar to gold entering the "free pricing" era due to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system—opportunity and uncertainty coexist.

However, the gold market has never been truly free. Historically, gold has not only served as a safe-haven asset but also played the role of a "shadow lever" in the monetary system. Cases of using gold for geopolitical games are not uncommon, such as the "Gold Window" incident in the 1970s, the "Gold Swap" operations under the Reagan administration in the 1980s, and the Federal Reserve releasing liquidity through the gold leasing market in the 2000s.

In addition, the credibility of gold is not unbreakable. The official gold reserve data of the United States has not been independently audited for many years, and its authenticity has been a hot topic of discussion in the market. More importantly, although the U.S. government does not directly sell gold, it may manipulate its value through financial derivatives, implementing shadow monetary policy operations.

Bitcoin: A Part of Future Shadow Currency Policy?

As the interest in holding Bitcoin rises in the United States, the market may enter the "Bitcoin becomes a shadow asset" stage—where the official acknowledgment of Bitcoin's value is met with policies and financial instruments that limit its direct impact on the existing system.

If the US government incorporates Bitcoin as a strategic asset and begins to accumulate it, although it cannot directly control the supply or price of Bitcoin, it may conduct market operations through shadow institutions (such as Bitcoin ETFs or trusts) to indirectly influence the price of Bitcoin and market sentiment. These institutions may leverage the liquidity and volatility of the Bitcoin market to accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin into a "hoarding" state, to be released at specific moments, impacting market supply and demand and price trends. This operation is similar to the "gold swap" and "gold leasing" in the gold market, primarily achieved through financial instruments and market strategies.

However, the technical characteristics of Bitcoin may allow it to avoid repeating the mistakes of gold:

1. Transparency: Unlike the "black box" operations of gold, Bitcoin transactions can be traced on the blockchain. As a native asset on the blockchain, all transactions are publicly auditable. Anyone can track the circulation of Bitcoin through on-chain data tools. The Bitcoin network is composed of decentralized independent nodes, each holding a complete transaction ledger, collectively verifying transactions, and no single institution or country can alter or manipulate Bitcoin transaction data.

2. Risk Resistance Ability: The centralized management model of the traditional financial system has led to systemic risks, as evidenced by the 2008 financial crisis and the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank incident. In contrast, even Bitcoin stored in centralized exchanges has technical means to prove the actual storage situation. Some exchanges have launched excess PoR (Proof of Reserves) programs to ensure that the assets held by the exchange not only cover all user deposits but also reserve a certain proportion of funds as a safety buffer.

The strategy of the United States revaluing gold and using this "new" dollar created in this way to purchase Bitcoin is not only a form of shadow currency operation but also exposes the fragility of the global financial system. Whether Bitcoin can truly become independent and free "digital gold" in this process, rather than merely an adjunct of the U.S. financial system, remains to be seen. However, from a technical perspective, both on-chain real-time queryable transactions and PoR from centralized institutions provide a new solution for the traditional financial system. The proposal of exchanging gold for Bitcoin has initiated a profound dialogue about the future financial system.