$BTC

I am personally waiting for a bit lower prices on Bitcoin. I don't say that easily, as I think we are in that period where it pays much more to be a bull.

That means my HTF stance remains bullish but I see too many warning signs for lower in the immediate-term to ignore.

Let's start with the basics and some very simple TA: price is currently range bound and clearly in the premium area of the range.

Not only that, but price also hit a ndPOC at the top of the range. And as you can see, the previous 3 big bottoms/top were also after touching a ndPOC:

So then we can move on to the next part: some simple statistics on the monthly timeframe. July just started but we can already take away some interesting stats.

The current monthly low is P1 and was put in on July 2nd 01:00 UTC, and the current monthly high is P2 and was put in on July 3rd 13:00 UTC (today):

Now the first question I ask myself is: how often does price put in the monthly P1 this early in the month? The answer is already attached in the chart above.

78.8% of the last 80 months put in the monthly P1 later than the 2nd trading day at 01:00. That means only 21.2% of these months actually put in the monthly P1 this early.

So in almost 80% of months, such an early pivot would get taken out later in the month. Not exactly something I would want to bet the farm on.

These kinds of early pivots can hold, but they usually only hold after a strong trend. So far it is too early to say that, as we can see in the first row of this Summary table:

If the metrics on P1 Flip Risk were low, that means historically there is a low chance of taking out P1 (the monthly low).

The time statistics indicate that 68.8% of months put in a high/low on the 3rd trading day at 13:00 UTC or later followed by a reversal to take out the opposite pivot.

The later price puts in a monthly high, the lower this metric will get. But for now, it still indicates a moderately higher probability to take out the monthly low than not to.

So now we have a couple of warning signs:
1. Price is currently trading in the premium of the range
2. Price is stalling at a ndPOC in the premium of the range
3. The monthly low is statistically not a high probability pivot (yet)

This is also why I would have preferred the month to move a bit lower first, but we work with what we get, not with what we want.

In Conclusion

You have to let the good trades come to you, and at least in my system, a breakout long at range highs is not it. So I'm simply waiting here.

Still fully spot long as well in case this does break out here so not feeling any FOMO either.