On May 22nd, Jinshi Data reported that Idanna Appio, who has worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 15 years, analyzed the history of sovereign debt crises. Now, as a fund manager of the $138 billion First Eagle Investments, she has come to a conclusion: the risk of U.S. Treasury bonds is too high and not suitable for holding. While the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, Appio's judgment is about much more than just the timing of rate cuts. It is closely related to the accelerated inflation, increased government healthcare spending, and expanding deficit of the new era. What lies behind all of this? The fact that the world is rapidly aging, and now it is time for investment portfolios to keep up with the times. Instead of buying what is considered the safest asset in the world to balance her stock and credit holdings, Appio has increased her investment in gold. She believes that the long-term yield of U.S. bonds cannot provide sufficient compensation, and she mentioned that the surge in U.S. government borrowing has raised concerns that it may trigger a debt crisis in the coming years.

The market remains panicked about inflation, and if the data continues to exceed expectations, concerns about interest rate hikes may resurface.

PANews reported on March 6 that Adam, a Greeks.live macro researcher, posted on the X platform that the rapid fluctuation of the market has driven the activity of the options market to the highest level in nearly a year, with more than 15,000 large transactions on the same day, with a nominal value of more than $1 billion. Among them, the largest order is 275 groups of iron eagle options, with a single notional value of up to 73.34 million US dollars. Recently, large investors have closed their options positions on a large scale, whether they are long and take profit or short and admit losses, all of which have suppressed the rise of IV.

Gold trend: Multiple good news are coming, gold price returns to 1860! Should we pursue or not? Multiple good news are coming, gold has its largest single-day gain in five months! Gold jumped short and opened higher on Monday (October 9), and then further climbed to an intraday high of $1,863.4, up 1.57%, setting the largest single-day increase in more than five months since May 2, and recording two consecutive days of gains. It rose and returned to above $1860. It is worth noting that gold has been falling throughout September, and once broke through the $1,820 level, with a cumulative decline of 7%! Therefore, the market is speculating that gold's current rise may be a "deep rebound" rather than a true market reversal. However, the author believes that since gold’s current rise is driven by many factors, this means that the rise will not end soon. Last Saturday (October 7), the Palestinian armed organization Hamas announced the launch of military operations against Israel. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated without warning, was large-scale, highly destructive, and involved the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is closely related to Iran. This caused the market to worry that the incident might eventually evolve into the "Sixth Middle East War." Money poured into the U.S. dollar and gold sought a safe haven, causing both to rise. The geopolitical situation often has the greatest impact on gold, so the progress of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should undoubtedly be seen as dominating the current gold market. As far as the current situation is concerned, the United States has not adopted sanctions against Iran, and the war has not spread further to the Middle East. If the situation is finally controlled, it is expected that the power of risk aversion to support gold's rise may dissipate. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson hinted on Monday (October 9) that if long-term interest rates remain high due to rising term premiums, the need for interest rate increases may be reduced, as long-term Treasury bond yields Rising interest rates will directly affect the financing costs of households and businesses. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs Gold Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates a total of 11 times to curb high inflation, pushing interest rates to between 5.25% and 5.5%. The Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting on September 25 "hovered like an eagle", implying that the road to normalizing inflation is still "difficult". The 10-year Treasury bond yield once soared to 4.887%, the highest since 2007 level, and led to panic selling in global stock markets. Furthermore, the impeachment of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy means that the risk of a U.S. government shutdown in November at the end of this year has increased, which has provided support to gold. From a mid- to long-term perspective, the inflation problem has not yet been resolved, and it is expected that the tightening monetary policies of European and American central banks will still suppress the medium-term market price of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. However, with both politics and the economy in turmoil, the Federal Reserve may remain relatively "dovish" before the U.S. government shutdown crisis, giving gold an opportunity to rebound. The customer sentiment report shows that gold is in a long-short conflict stage. Investors can focus on the U.S. September CPI released on Thursday (October 12) and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, which are expected to intensify gold volatility. If the U.S. CPI data rebounds for three consecutive months in September, it is expected to put pressure on gold. Gold technical analysis: The mid-term rebound is approaching, or it may rise above 1900 The weekly chart shows that gold has been fluctuating in a large range since 2020, and recently gold has stabilized around $1,820 to build a rebound. This level is the midline of the range, indicating strong support. Looking forward to the market outlook, although it is not yet completely confirmed that the gold price trend has reversed, there is a need for rebound correction after gold's decline in the past five months. It is expected that gold will rely on $1,820 to build a rebound and eventually attack the resistance above $1,900. Investment Investors have also turned bullish on the trend of gold prices in the coming weeks. (Source: Dailyfx-Billy Liao)

"Canary" sounds the alarm, the future of gold is promising! "Eagle-style hovering" suppresses gold, and the focus of the market outlook is on the U.S. economy Last week (the week of September 18), gold's rebound was blocked near 1950. Week K recorded a long upper shadow star line, and the upward trend was still suppressed. The Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision "hawk-like hover", the US dollar was boosted again, with ten consecutive positive weeks; gold performed a surge and fell back, but still could not break through 1950. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that stronger than expected economic growth requires higher interest rates and will further raise interest rates if appropriate. In other words, solid economic conditions have given the Federal Reserve the confidence to act like an eagle. If the overall performance of U.S. economic data is better than expected, it may be difficult for gold to get out of the predicament since May. However, once the U.S. economy goes into a downturn, the Federal Reserve will be forced to change its hawkish attitude under pressure, and gold is expected to gain popularity in the market. Gold technical analysis: Caught in a choice, bulls are not without opportunities! The weekly chart of gold shows that the price continued to rise after testing 1615 (point Y) in the week of September 26 last year. It hit a record high of 2082 (point A) in the week of May 1 this year. Then the market came under pressure and fell, 8 It fell to a low of 1884 on the 21st of the week and then tried to rebound. The price is currently testing the downward trend channel since point A. If it effectively breaks through this barrier, bulls are expected to test the 1987 line pressure again. Once the pressure near 1987 is successfully broken, bulls will receive more encouragement, and the market may develop towards the 2050~2080 area. The lower support is at 1884. If it falls below this level, more downside space will be opened. Pay attention to 1864. This position is an ideal convergence point for a potential bullish Gartley pattern, which may cause huge interference to the development of the market. If 1864 continues to fail, shorts may point to lower support levels such as 1848 and 1793. (Source: Dailyfx-Jack Liu)

Jinse Finance reported that St. Louis Fed President Bullard resigned and will serve as dean of Purdue University's School of Business. The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank issued a statement on Thursday stating that Bullard will step down as the bank's president since Thursday and will leave the Fed completely on August 14 to become the dean of Purdue University's School of Business.

Odaily Planet Daily News St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Bullard, known as the "Eagle King", will resign on August 14. (Golden Ten)