Gold trend: Multiple good news are coming, gold price returns to 1860! Should we pursue or not?
Multiple good news are coming, gold has its largest single-day gain in five months!
Gold jumped short and opened higher on Monday (October 9), and then further climbed to an intraday high of $1,863.4, up 1.57%, setting the largest single-day increase in more than five months since May 2, and recording two consecutive days of gains. It rose and returned to above $1860.
It is worth noting that gold has been falling throughout September, and once broke through the $1,820 level, with a cumulative decline of 7%! Therefore, the market is speculating that gold's current rise may be a "deep rebound" rather than a true market reversal.
However, the author believes that since gold’s current rise is driven by many factors, this means that the rise will not end soon.
Last Saturday (October 7), the Palestinian armed organization Hamas announced the launch of military operations against Israel. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated without warning, was large-scale, highly destructive, and involved the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is closely related to Iran. This caused the market to worry that the incident might eventually evolve into the "Sixth Middle East War." Money poured into the U.S. dollar and gold sought a safe haven, causing both to rise.
The geopolitical situation often has the greatest impact on gold, so the progress of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should undoubtedly be seen as dominating the current gold market. As far as the current situation is concerned, the United States has not adopted sanctions against Iran, and the war has not spread further to the Middle East. If the situation is finally controlled, it is expected that the power of risk aversion to support gold's rise may dissipate.
On the other hand, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson hinted on Monday (October 9) that if long-term interest rates remain high due to rising term premiums, the need for interest rate increases may be reduced, as long-term Treasury bond yields Rising interest rates will directly affect the financing costs of households and businesses.
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs Gold
Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates a total of 11 times to curb high inflation, pushing interest rates to between 5.25% and 5.5%. The Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting on September 25 "hovered like an eagle", implying that the road to normalizing inflation is still "difficult". The 10-year Treasury bond yield once soared to 4.887%, the highest since 2007 level, and led to panic selling in global stock markets.
Furthermore, the impeachment of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy means that the risk of a U.S. government shutdown in November at the end of this year has increased, which has provided support to gold.
From a mid- to long-term perspective, the inflation problem has not yet been resolved, and it is expected that the tightening monetary policies of European and American central banks will still suppress the medium-term market price of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. However, with both politics and the economy in turmoil, the Federal Reserve may remain relatively "dovish" before the U.S. government shutdown crisis, giving gold an opportunity to rebound.
The customer sentiment report shows that gold is in a long-short conflict stage. Investors can focus on the U.S. September CPI released on Thursday (October 12) and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, which are expected to intensify gold volatility. If the U.S. CPI data rebounds for three consecutive months in September, it is expected to put pressure on gold.
Gold technical analysis: The mid-term rebound is approaching, or it may rise above 1900
The weekly chart shows that gold has been fluctuating in a large range since 2020, and recently gold has stabilized around $1,820 to build a rebound. This level is the midline of the range, indicating strong support.
Looking forward to the market outlook, although it is not yet completely confirmed that the gold price trend has reversed, there is a need for rebound correction after gold's decline in the past five months. It is expected that gold will rely on $1,820 to build a rebound and eventually attack the resistance above $1,900. Investment Investors have also turned bullish on the trend of gold prices in the coming weeks.
(Source: Dailyfx-Billy Liao)